Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$90
16 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
172 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Luis Arraez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Jacob Wilson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Jacob Wilson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob Wilson
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-JWIL
Cluster 4
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Yandy Diaz lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Yandy Diaz lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Yandy Diaz
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-YDIA
Cluster 7
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Bo Bichette
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-BBIC
Cluster 8
Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Trea Turner
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-TTUR
Cluster 10
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Xavier Edwards lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Ketel Marte lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Ketel Marte lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Ketel Marte
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-KMAR
Cluster 13
Will Steven Kwan lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Steven Kwan lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Steven Kwan
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-SKWA
Cluster 14
Will Gabriel Moreno lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 15
Will Jake Mangum lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Jake Mangum lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Jake Mangum
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-JMAN
Cluster 16
Will Alec Bohm lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Alec Bohm lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Alec Bohm
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-ABOH
Analysis
This market estimates a 5% chance that Trea Turner finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest batting average among all players. The current probability reflects Turner's solid but not elite recent performance relative to other elite hitters on the market. Turner's actual batting average through the season would push this probability up if he maintains an exceptionally high contact rate and consistency, or down if competitors like Aaron Judge or other high-average hitters outpace him. The resolution depends entirely on final 2026 regular season statistics, which will be finalized after the season ends in late September 2026. Turner has been a reliable hitter but rarely leads the league in specific batting statistics, and the 5% figure suggests markets view him as a secondary candidate compared to other power hitters competing for offensive titles.
- ›Turner's career batting average ranks in the .290s, below the typical .310+ threshold for batting title contenders
- ›Competitors tracked on this market include Aaron Judge (who leads in OPS contracts at 51¢), suggesting markets favor other hitters for overall offensive dominance
- ›Batting average as a specific metric requires minimizing strikeouts while maintaining high contact rate—a different profile than home run or slugging leaders
- ›The 2026 season is already underway as of May 3, 2026, meaning Turner's early-season performance through two months provides concrete evidence of his pace
- ›Trading volume on batting average markets (20 Kalshi contracts) is lower than related markets like home runs, suggesting less market certainty in this specific category
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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