SimpleFunctions
14 source contracts·Kalshi 14·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 22, 2026 · 75d

Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 14 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

8%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

8%

14 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$1K

14 contracts

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

75 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 24% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 24% on 2026-08-08
Aggregate of 14 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

14 clusters across 14 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Otto Lopez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$514

Cluster 2

Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$405

Cluster 3

Will Luis Arraez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$84

Cluster 4

Will Ronald Acuña Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Alec Bohm lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Alec Burleson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Alejandro Kirk lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Brendan Donovan lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Carlos Correa lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This 4% probability represents the likelihood that Trea Turner finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest batting average among all players. Turner's low odds reflect the competitive nature of the batting title race, where dozens of qualified hitters compete for statistical supremacy each season. The probability is shaped by two main dynamics: Turner's historical performance and consistency relative to other elite contact hitters, and real-time batting average data accumulating through the season's remaining games. The batting title will be determined by final statistical records published after the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, at which point the outcome becomes definitive. Turner would need to both maintain an exceptionally high average and perform better than other top hitters down the stretch to claim the title.

  • Turner's 2026 season-to-date batting average compared to league leaders as of July 4
  • Minimum plate appearance thresholds required for batting title eligibility and whether Turner meets them
  • Historical volatility in batting average leaders over final months—whether lead changes hands frequently or remains stable
  • Injury status of Turner and competing elite contact hitters—availability directly impacts their final statistics
  • Comparative performance trajectories of Ronald Acuña Jr., Alec Bohm, and other players priced higher in related contracts

What moved the line

  • Aug 3Yordan Alvarez9pp1827¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 3Otto Lopez5pp2015¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 4Yordan Alvarez4pp2731¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 7Otto Lopez3pp1411¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 5Yordan Alvarez3pp3134¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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