Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
14 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
75 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Otto Lopez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Otto Lopez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Otto Lopez
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-OLOP
Cluster 2
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Luis Arraez lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Alec Bohm lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Alec Bohm lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Alec Bohm
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-ABOH
Cluster 6
Will Alec Burleson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Alec Burleson lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Alec Burleson
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-ABUR
Cluster 7
Will Alejandro Kirk lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Bo Bichette
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-BBIC
Cluster 9
Will Brendan Donovan lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-BHAR
Cluster 11
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-BROO
Cluster 12
Will Carlos Correa lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Carlos Correa lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Carlos Correa
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-CCOR
Cluster 13
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season?: Corey Seager
KXLEADERMLBAVG-26-CSEA
Cluster 14
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in batting average for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This 4% probability represents the likelihood that Trea Turner finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with the highest batting average among all players. Turner's low odds reflect the competitive nature of the batting title race, where dozens of qualified hitters compete for statistical supremacy each season. The probability is shaped by two main dynamics: Turner's historical performance and consistency relative to other elite contact hitters, and real-time batting average data accumulating through the season's remaining games. The batting title will be determined by final statistical records published after the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, at which point the outcome becomes definitive. Turner would need to both maintain an exceptionally high average and perform better than other top hitters down the stretch to claim the title.
- ›Turner's 2026 season-to-date batting average compared to league leaders as of July 4
- ›Minimum plate appearance thresholds required for batting title eligibility and whether Turner meets them
- ›Historical volatility in batting average leaders over final months—whether lead changes hands frequently or remains stable
- ›Injury status of Turner and competing elite contact hitters—availability directly impacts their final statistics
- ›Comparative performance trajectories of Ronald Acuña Jr., Alec Bohm, and other players priced higher in related contracts
What moved the line
- Aug 3Yordan Alvarez↑9pp18→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Otto Lopez↓5pp20→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Yordan Alvarez↑4pp27→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Otto Lopez↓3pp14→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 5Yordan Alvarez↑3pp31→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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