Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$158
20 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-MOLS
Cluster 2
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-BWIT
Cluster 3
Will Geraldo Perdomo lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Geraldo Perdomo lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Geraldo Perdomo
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-GPER
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-AJUD
Cluster 5
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-SOHT
Cluster 6
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-BBUX
Cluster 7
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JCAM
Cluster 9
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: José Ramírez
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JRAM
Cluster 11
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Julio Rodríguez
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JROD
Cluster 12
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Juan Soto
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JSOT
Cluster 13
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Manny Machado
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-MMAC
Cluster 14
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-CRAL
Cluster 15
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-BHAR
Cluster 16
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Rafael Devers
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-RDEV
Cluster 17
Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 18
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-YALV
Cluster 19
Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Tucker
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-KTUC
Cluster 20
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Adley Rutschman
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-ARUT
Analysis
This market estimates a 5% chance that Aaron Judge leads Major League Baseball in doubles during the 2026 regular season. Judge is primarily known as a power hitter rather than a doubles specialist, which explains the low probability. The market would shift based on Judge's playing time, whether he adjusts his swing mechanics to prioritize doubles over home runs, and how competitors like Luis Arraez or other contact-oriented hitters perform. The resolution will depend on official MLB statistics released at season's end, typically in late September or early October 2026 when final regular-season records are compiled.
- ›Aaron Judge's historical batting profile shows he averages roughly 25-30 doubles per season despite 200+ strikeouts annually, making him a middle-tier doubles contributor rather than a league leader
- ›Judge would need to significantly alter his approach to prioritize doubles over power, a strategic shift that contradicts his role as a slugger in the Yankees lineup
- ›Contact-focused hitters like Luis Arraez and other specialists typically lead in doubles, and several such players are likely to accumulate more doubles than Judge in 2026
- ›Judge's age (34 in 2026) and injury history affect both his availability and whether he maintains aggressive power-hitting mechanics
- ›MLB's final regular-season statistics become official in late September 2026, providing the definitive data for market resolution
What moved the line
- May 7Matt Olson↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Freddie Freeman↓3pp11→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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