Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether Aaron Judge will record more doubles than any other Major League Baseball player during the 2026 regular season. At 5%, the market assigns this a low probability, reflecting Judge's inconsistent track record as a doubles leader despite his offensive output. Judge leads the majors in home runs most seasons, but doubles depend on different batting approaches and opportunity—players who hit for contact and run regularly often lead in this category. The market appears to favor specialists like Freddie Freeman (4%) and Taylor Ward (5%) who accumulate doubles through consistent play and base-running. Resolution will depend on Judge's playing time, batting approach, and how the double totals compare across the league when the regular season concludes in October 2026.

• ›Aaron Judge's historical doubles production: Judge has never led MLB in doubles, typically ranking 50th-100th annually despite 2000+ plate appearances per season
• ›Freeman and Ward's market positioning: Both are priced similarly or lower than Judge despite market data suggesting contact hitters tend to lead doubles categories more frequently
• ›Playing time and health: Judge's likelihood of playing 150+ games at the age of 34-35 directly impacts whether he can accumulate sufficient doubles to compete for the league lead
• ›Doubles leader typical volume: MLB doubles leaders typically accumulate 50-53 doubles annually; Judge would need sustained high-frequency doubles production outside his normal home-run-focused approach
• ›Comparable competitor track records: Freddie Freeman has periodically ranked in top-10 for doubles; Taylor Ward led AL in doubles in 2023 with 52, establishing recent production capability

What moved the line

• Sep 10Freddie Freeman↓3pp7→4¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 4d
• Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 4d
• Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 6d
• Will PL win the 2026 Brazilian Chamber of Deputies electionslast 48% · 6d
• Will PSD hold 1 seats in all 27 Brazilian governorships (the 26 states and the Federal District), counted together as a single aggregate body for purposes of this Contract after the 2026 Brazilian gubernatorial electionslast 23% · 6d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds