Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
5%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
19 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
104 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-AJUD
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-SOHT
Cluster 3
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-BBUX
Cluster 4
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JCAM
Cluster 6
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-MOLS
Cluster 8
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: José Ramírez
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JRAM
Cluster 9
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Julio Rodríguez
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JROD
Cluster 10
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Juan Soto
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-JSOT
Cluster 11
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Manny Machado
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-MMAC
Cluster 12
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-CRAL
Cluster 13
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-BHAR
Cluster 14
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 15
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Rafael Devers
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-RDEV
Cluster 16
Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 17
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-YALV
Cluster 18
Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Tucker
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-KTUC
Cluster 19
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in doubles for the 2026 regular season?: Adley Rutschman
KXLEADERMLBDOUBLES-26-ARUT
Analysis
This contract asks whether Aaron Judge will record more doubles than any other Major League Baseball player during the 2026 regular season. At 5%, the market assigns this a low probability, reflecting Judge's inconsistent track record as a doubles leader despite his offensive output. Judge leads the majors in home runs most seasons, but doubles depend on different batting approaches and opportunity—players who hit for contact and run regularly often lead in this category. The market appears to favor specialists like Freddie Freeman (4%) and Taylor Ward (5%) who accumulate doubles through consistent play and base-running. Resolution will depend on Judge's playing time, batting approach, and how the double totals compare across the league when the regular season concludes in October 2026.
- ›Aaron Judge's historical doubles production: Judge has never led MLB in doubles, typically ranking 50th-100th annually despite 2000+ plate appearances per season
- ›Freeman and Ward's market positioning: Both are priced similarly or lower than Judge despite market data suggesting contact hitters tend to lead doubles categories more frequently
- ›Playing time and health: Judge's likelihood of playing 150+ games at the age of 34-35 directly impacts whether he can accumulate sufficient doubles to compete for the league lead
- ›Doubles leader typical volume: MLB doubles leaders typically accumulate 50-53 doubles annually; Judge would need sustained high-frequency doubles production outside his normal home-run-focused approach
- ›Comparable competitor track records: Freddie Freeman has periodically ranked in top-10 for doubles; Taylor Ward led AL in doubles in 2023 with 52, establishing recent production capability
What moved the line
- Jul 7Rafael Devers↓6pp18→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Rafael Devers↑5pp13→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
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