Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6
15 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-BWIT
Cluster 2
Will Nick Kurtz lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Nick Kurtz lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Nick Kurtz
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-NKUR
Cluster 3
Will Jacob Wilson lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Jacob Wilson lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob Wilson
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-JWIL
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-AJUD
Cluster 5
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-SOHT
Cluster 6
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Schwarber
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-KSCH
Cluster 7
Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Pete Alonso
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-PALO
Cluster 9
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-JCAM
Cluster 10
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Freddie Freeman
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-FFRE
Cluster 11
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-MOLS
Cluster 12
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: José Ramírez
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-JRAM
Cluster 13
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Julio Rodríguez
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-JROD
Cluster 14
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Juan Soto
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-JSOT
Cluster 15
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Manny Machado
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-MMAC
Analysis
This contract predicts whether Shohei Ohtani will finish the 2026 MLB regular season with more hits than any other player. At 5% probability, the market indicates this outcome is unlikely. Ohtani's hit total depends on his playing time, batting average, and overall performance relative to established contact hitters across baseball. The low probability reflects that hitting leaders typically accumulate 180-200+ hits over a full season, requiring both sustained play and consistent offensive performance. The outcome will be determined at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, when official MLB statistics are finalized. Factors like injury, trade activity, or unexpected breakout seasons from other players could shift expectations substantially before then.
- ›Ohtani's historical hit totals and batting average compared to typical MLB hits leaders over recent seasons
- ›His projected playing time for 2026 season relative to full-time contact-focused hitters
- ›Competition from established high-average players like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and other AL/NL regulars
- ›Whether Ohtani's primary role remains as a two-way player or shifts to primarily DH/outfield, affecting at-bats
- ›Historical correlation between power-hitting players and hits leadership, since Ohtani is primarily known for power output
What moved the line
- May 3Vladimir Guerrero Jr.↑3pp8→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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