Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$434
16 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
90 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
16 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Otto Lopez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Otto Lopez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Otto Lopez
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-OLOP
Cluster 2
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-YALV
Cluster 3
Will Alex Bregman lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Alex Bregman lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Alex Bregman
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-ABRE
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-AJUD
Cluster 5
Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Austin Riley lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Austin Riley
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-ARIL
Cluster 6
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Adley Rutschman
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-ARUT
Cluster 7
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Bo Bichette lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Bo Bichette
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-BBIC
Cluster 8
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-BHAR
Cluster 9
Will Bryan Reynolds lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryan Reynolds lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Bryan Reynolds
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-BREY
Cluster 10
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-BROO
Cluster 11
Will Brice Turang lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Brice Turang lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Brice Turang
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-BTUR
Cluster 12
Will Cody Bellinger lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Cody Bellinger lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Cody Bellinger
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-CBEL
Cluster 13
Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Corbin Carroll
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-CCAR
Cluster 14
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-CRAL
Cluster 15
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Corey Seager lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Corey Seager
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-CSEA
Cluster 16
Will Ernie Clement lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season
Will Ernie Clement lead Pro Baseball in hits for the 2026 regular season?: Ernie Clement
KXLEADERMLBHITS-26-ECLE
Analysis
This 8% probability indicates a 1-in-12 chance that Ohtani finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more hits than all other players. The market shows Luis Arraez (28¢) and Otto Lopez (36¢) as stronger favorites, reflecting their recent performance patterns and playing time. Ohtani's probability reflects several considerations: his injury history and recovery status heading into 2026, whether he maintains his typical playing schedule over a full 162-game season, and how his performance compares to established high-contact hitters. The hits leader is determined by cumulative at-bats and contact rate throughout the regular season, with outcomes influenced by team playoff positioning and potential rest decisions in September. The resolution occurs automatically on October 1, 2026, when final regular season statistics are recorded.
- ›Ohtani's games played in 2026 and plate appearance total compared to Arraez and Lopez
- ›His batting average and contact rate trends versus competitors who typically rank high in hits
- ›Whether he faces extended injury or rest periods during the 162-game season
- ›The relative playing time and team circumstances for other top hit-rate competitors
- ›Historical correlation between stolen base and baserunning frequency with hit accumulation rate
What moved the line
- Jul 19Otto Lopez↓3pp42→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Otto Lopez↓3pp41→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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