Will Jeremy Peña lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$173
17 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-MOLS
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-SOHT
Cluster 3
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-AJUD
Cluster 4
Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Pete Alonso
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-PALO
Cluster 5
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Junior Caminero
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JCAM
Cluster 6
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Freddie Freeman
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-FFRE
Cluster 7
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: José Ramírez
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JRAM
Cluster 8
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Julio Rodríguez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Julio Rodríguez
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JROD
Cluster 9
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Juan Soto
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-JSOT
Cluster 10
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Manny Machado lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Manny Machado
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-MMAC
Cluster 11
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-CRAL
Cluster 12
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-BHAR
Cluster 13
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Rafael Devers lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Rafael Devers
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-RDEV
Cluster 14
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-YALV
Cluster 15
Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Tucker
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-KTUC
Cluster 16
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-BROO
Cluster 17
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Adley Rutschman lead Pro Baseball in runs for the 2026 regular season?: Adley Rutschman
KXLEADERMLBRUNS-26-ARUT
Analysis
This market reflects a 5% probability that Jeremy Peña finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more runs scored than all other players. Peña led the league in runs in 2024 but faces competition from established high-volume scorers. The market is driven by two primary factors: Peña's historical performance trajectory and baseline expectations for top offensive players who typically generate more opportunities to score. The 2026 regular season runs-scored leader will be determined by October 2026 when final statistics are compiled, with mid-season performance metrics offering early signals about contenders' pace. Early trades indicate modest confidence in Peña relative to other statistical leaders, suggesting market participants view the field as more likely to produce the runs leader this season.
- ›Peña scored 108 runs in 2024 (league-leading) but base rates suggest regression given typical MLB volatility in run-scoring rates year-to-year
- ›The 2026 Astros roster composition and offensive lineup structure will determine Peña's plate appearances and scoring opportunities relative to 2024
- ›Comparison players like Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, and other elite hitters have historically competed for runs-scored leader; their roster health and performance directly impacts Peña's probability
- ›MLB's seasonal pace and weather patterns affect overall run-scoring environment; a lower-scoring 2026 season would compress the distribution of run totals
- ›Peña's contract situation and team prioritization of offensive lineup construction will influence batting order position and frequency of at-bats
What moved the line
- May 3Aaron Judge↑5pp10→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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