SimpleFunctions
13 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Oct 22, 2026 · 166d

Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 13 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

7%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

7%

13 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$714

13 contracts

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

166 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 7% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 7% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 13 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

13 clusters across 13 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Nasim Nuñez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$714

Cluster 2

Will Elly De La Cruz lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Jakob Marsee lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Pete Crow-Armstrong lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will José Caballero lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Victor Scott II lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Oneil Cruz lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Xavier Edwards lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market reflects the 7% probability that José Ramírez will record the most stolen bases across all MLB players during the 2026 regular season. Ramírez is a talented infielder, but historically, stolen base leaders tend to come from players with both speed and high plate appearances—factors that vary significantly year to year. The probability is influenced by his past performance relative to other base-stealing threats in the league, injuries that could limit playing time, and how frequently his team employs aggressive base-running strategies. The resolution will depend on complete 2026 regular season statistics compiled by MLB, which typically conclude in early October. Changes to this probability would likely come from spring training performance reports or significant roster moves affecting elite speedsters.

  • Ramírez's historical stolen base totals and rank among MLB leaders in recent seasons
  • Availability and performance of other known base-stealing threats (Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge's teammates, etc.) throughout 2026
  • Ramírez's plate appearance rate and at-bat volume, which directly correlates with steal opportunities
  • Team offensive strategy and coaching decisions regarding aggressive baserunning in 2026
  • Injury status entering and during the 2026 regular season, which would impact games played and steal opportunities

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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