Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$134
5 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
116 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-BBUX
Cluster 4
Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Hyeseong Kim lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Hyeseong Kim lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Hyeseong Kim
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-HKIM
Analysis
This market reflects the 7% probability that José Ramírez will record the most stolen bases across all MLB players during the 2026 regular season. Ramírez is a talented infielder, but historically, stolen base leaders tend to come from players with both speed and high plate appearances—factors that vary significantly year to year. The probability is influenced by his past performance relative to other base-stealing threats in the league, injuries that could limit playing time, and how frequently his team employs aggressive base-running strategies. The resolution will depend on complete 2026 regular season statistics compiled by MLB, which typically conclude in early October. Changes to this probability would likely come from spring training performance reports or significant roster moves affecting elite speedsters.
- ›Ramírez's historical stolen base totals and rank among MLB leaders in recent seasons
- ›Availability and performance of other known base-stealing threats (Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge's teammates, etc.) throughout 2026
- ›Ramírez's plate appearance rate and at-bat volume, which directly correlates with steal opportunities
- ›Team offensive strategy and coaching decisions regarding aggressive baserunning in 2026
- ›Injury status entering and during the 2026 regular season, which would impact games played and steal opportunities
Recently closed in general
- What will James Talarico say during 2026 Texas Democratic Convention - Friday General Sessionlast 87% · 1d
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 3d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 4d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 9d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.