Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 13 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
13 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$714
13 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 13 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Nasim Nuñez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Nasim Nuñez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Nasim Nuñez
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-NNUN
Cluster 2
Will Elly De La Cruz lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Chandler Simpson lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-BWIT
Cluster 5
Will Jakob Marsee lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Jakob Marsee lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Jakob Marsee
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-JMAR
Cluster 6
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will José Caballero lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will José Caballero lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: José Caballero
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-JCAB
Cluster 8
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: José Ramírez
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-JRAM
Cluster 9
Will Victor Scott II lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Victor Scott II lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Victor Scott II
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-VSCO
Cluster 10
Will Oneil Cruz lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Oneil Cruz lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Oneil Cruz
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-OCRU
Cluster 11
Will Jazz Chisholm Jr. lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Xavier Edwards lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Xavier Edwards lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Xavier Edwards
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-XEDW
Cluster 13
Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season
Will Trea Turner lead Pro Baseball in steals for the 2026 regular season?: Trea Turner
KXLEADERMLBSTEALS-26-TTUR
Analysis
This market reflects the 7% probability that José Ramírez will record the most stolen bases across all MLB players during the 2026 regular season. Ramírez is a talented infielder, but historically, stolen base leaders tend to come from players with both speed and high plate appearances—factors that vary significantly year to year. The probability is influenced by his past performance relative to other base-stealing threats in the league, injuries that could limit playing time, and how frequently his team employs aggressive base-running strategies. The resolution will depend on complete 2026 regular season statistics compiled by MLB, which typically conclude in early October. Changes to this probability would likely come from spring training performance reports or significant roster moves affecting elite speedsters.
- ›Ramírez's historical stolen base totals and rank among MLB leaders in recent seasons
- ›Availability and performance of other known base-stealing threats (Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge's teammates, etc.) throughout 2026
- ›Ramírez's plate appearance rate and at-bat volume, which directly correlates with steal opportunities
- ›Team offensive strategy and coaching decisions regarding aggressive baserunning in 2026
- ›Injury status entering and during the 2026 regular season, which would impact games played and steal opportunities
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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