Will Christian Gonzalez lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
10 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2027
141 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will A.J. Terrell Jr. lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 2
Will Brian Branch lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 3
Will Christian Gonzalez lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 4
Will Derek Stingley Jr. lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 5
Will Jessie Bates III lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 6
Will Kevin Byard III lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 7
Will Kyle Hamilton lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 8
Will Kerby Joseph lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 9
Will Marlon Humphrey lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 10
Will Pat Surtain II lead Pro Football in Interceptions for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Analysis
This represents a 6% probability that Christian Gonzalez finishes the 2026-2027 NFL regular season with more interceptions than any other defensive player. The low probability reflects that leading the league in interceptions is extremely difficult, requiring both exceptional coverage skills and favorable opportunity distribution. Factors driving this low estimate include the depth of elite defensive backs in the NFL and Gonzalez's historical interception rates. The probability would move primarily based on: (1) how many interceptions Gonzalez records in preseason and early regular season games (setting baseline performance expectations), and (2) injury status and performance of other elite cornerbacks and safeties competing for the league lead. The 2026-2027 regular season begins in September 2026, at which point actual weekly performance data will rapidly resolve uncertainty about whether Gonzalez can outpace competitors over the 17-game season.
- ›Gonzalez's career interception rate through his first five seasons relative to league-leading defensive backs
- ›The competitive strength of other elite NFL defenders expected to play in 2026-2027, particularly high-volume safeties and cornerbacks
- ›Gonzalez's team's defensive scheme and blitz packages, which affect opportunities for interceptions versus other defensive plays
- ›Injury status of top defensive back competitors entering the 2026-2027 season
- ›Whether Gonzalez maintains or improves his 2025-2026 interception total during the 2026-2027 regular season
What moved the line
- Sep 19Marlon Humphrey↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 1d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 3d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 7d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 7d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 9d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.