Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$931
9 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2027
141 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 2
Will Trevor Lawrence lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 3
Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 4
Will Jared Goff lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 5
Will Josh Allen lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 6
Will Caleb Williams lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 7
Will Joe Burrow lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 8
Will Justin Herbert lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 9
Will Jordan Love lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Analysis
This contract asks whether Drake Maye will have the most passing touchdowns across the entire NFL during the 2026-2027 regular season. At 6%, the market assigns Drake Maye roughly similar odds to Caleb Williams (6%) but lower than Jared Goff (7%) and significantly lower than established veterans like Matthew Stafford (9%). The low probability reflects that Maye, entering his second NFL season, would need to substantially outperform both established franchise quarterbacks and other young elite passers to lead the league. Leading the NFL in passing touchdowns typically requires both elite offensive weapons and exceptional individual performance sustained over 17 games. The resolution will be determined by final regular-season statistics from the NFL's 2026-2027 season, which concludes in early January 2027. Upward pressure on this contract would come from Maye demonstrating elite passing efficiency in early season games, while downward pressure would result from competing quarterbacks accumulating touchdowns at a faster pace.
- ›Drake Maye's offensive line stability and receiver talent in 2026 compared to other top QB rosters
- ›Whether Maye's rushing touchdown volume cannibalizes passing TD opportunities versus pure pocket passers
- ›Early-season performance trends showing whether Maye is on pace to materially exceed historical TD leaders
- ›Injury status of other high-volume passing QBs, particularly Goff, Stafford, and Williams through the 17-game season
- ›Play-calling philosophy of New England's offensive coordinator and whether the system emphasizes volume passing attempts
What moved the line
- Sep 17Caleb Williams↓9pp16→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jared Goff↑8pp9→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Dak Prescott↓6pp14→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Josh Allen↑6pp1→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Jared Goff↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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