Will Drake Maye lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2027
275 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matthew Stafford lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 2
Will Dak Prescott lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 3
Will Bo Nix lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Will Bo Nix lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season?: Bo Nix
KXLEADERNFLPTDS-27-BNIX10
Cluster 4
Will Patrick Mahomes lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 5
Will Jordan Love lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 6
Will Bryce Young lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Cluster 7
Will Brock Purdy lead Pro Football in Passing Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 Regular Season
Analysis
This market asks whether Drake Maye will record more passing touchdowns than any other NFL player during the 2026-2027 regular season. The 34% probability reflects moderate confidence in this outcome, suggesting roughly 2-to-1 odds against him leading the league. Maye's ability to claim this title depends primarily on his team's offensive scheme and his own health and consistency over a full 17-game season. The main downward pressure on this probability stems from competition from established elite quarterbacks and the unpredictability of individual statistical achievements across the entire league. Resolution will occur following the final game of the 2026-2027 NFL regular season in early January 2027, when official passing touchdown totals become final and verifiable. Until then, performance through the first half of the season (around mid-November 2026) will likely shift market sentiment significantly, as early leader status tends to correlate with full-season outcomes.
- ›Maye's actual touchdown pass rate through the first 8-9 games of the 2026 season, compared to other starting quarterbacks
- ›The Houston Texans' offensive play-calling philosophy and usage patterns for pass attempts versus run plays
- ›Injury status of Maye and other top-tier quarterback competitors during the regular season
- ›Competition from at least 10-15 other capable NFL starting quarterbacks with similar statistical opportunities
- ›End-of-season passing touchdown totals for the statistical leader and next closest competitors, which determine the winner
What moved the line
- May 8Dak Prescott↓77pp80→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
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