Will Jaylen Waddle lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
10 contracts
Closes
Feb 8, 2027
198 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Mike Evans lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 2
Will A.J. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Justin Jefferson lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 5
Will CeeDee Lamb lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Ja'Marr Chase lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Puka Nacua lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Amon-Ra St. Brown lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Davante Adams lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Cluster 10
Will George Pickens lead Pro Football in Receiving Touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 19% probability that Jaylen Waddle will lead the NFL in receiving touchdowns during the 2026-2027 regular season. Waddle currently ranks third among competing receivers in market pricing, behind Ja'Marr Chase at 22% and ahead of Emeka Egbuka at 17%. The probability reflects competition from established high-volume receivers and uncertainty about target allocation and offensive efficiency across the league. Waddle's probability could shift based on offseason trades, coaching changes, or preseason performance indicators. The 2026 NFL regular season begins in September 2026, which will definitively resolve this outcome. Leading the league in receiving touchdowns typically requires sustained target volume, red-zone usage, and staying healthy throughout a 17-game schedule.
- ›Jaylen Waddle's target share and red-zone touches relative to other elite receivers during the 2026 season
- ›Miami Dolphins' offensive scheme and whether it prioritizes passing to wide receivers versus other playmakers
- ›Injury status of competing receivers (Chase, Egbuka, and others) throughout the 2026 regular season
- ›Waddle's historical touchdown conversion rate compared to the league-leading receiver's typical efficiency
- ›Team playoff positioning in late season, which may affect playing time or offensive philosophy in final weeks
What moved the line
- Jul 24Justin Jefferson↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 23Ja'Marr Chase↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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