Will Ashton Jeanty lead Pro Football in rushing touchdowns for the 2026-2027 regular season

30-day trend

Analysis

This market asks whether Ashton Jeanty will accumulate more rushing touchdowns than all other NFL running backs during the 2026-2027 regular season. At 6%, the probability reflects significant uncertainty about whether Jeanty leads the league in this specific metric. The low probability suggests that other backs—particularly Derrick Henry (8%), Omarion Hampton (6%), Christian McCaffrey (6%), and James Cook III (7%)—are viewed as having better odds at the outright lead. The market appears to be pricing in competition from multiple high-performing runners rather than confidence in any single back. Key variables include injury history for top contenders, changes in offensive game plans, workload distribution among backup runners, and seasonal performance momentum. Resolution will occur after the regular season concludes in early January 2027, when official NFL rushing touchdown statistics are finalized.

• ›Derrick Henry and James Cook III are trading at higher probabilities (8% and 7% respectively), suggesting market participants view them as more likely leaders than Jeanty
• ›Jeanty's actual workload and scoring opportunities depend on his team's offensive strategy, red-zone usage patterns, and competition from other offensive weapons
• ›Injury status of top rushing touchdown contenders before and during the season will significantly impact touchdown distribution
• ›The market shows no single back with probability above 8%, indicating leadership in rushing TDs is widely dispersed among multiple candidates
• ›Historical consistency: backing into the rushing TD lead typically requires both high volume and high efficiency in the red zone over 17 games

What moved the line

• Sep 17Cam Skattebo↑29pp3→32¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Cam Skattebo↓21pp32→11¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Josh Allen↑7pp3→10¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Josh Allen↑5pp10→15¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Kenneth Walker III↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds