SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Sep 11, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
14 source contracts·Kalshi 14·closed just now·Closes Nov 8, 2026 · 58d

Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 14 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

11%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

11%

14 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$124

14 contracts

Closes

Nov 8, 2026

58 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 43% (24 days, 24 points)Aggregate: 43% on 2026-09-10
Aggregate of 14 contracts · 24d

Bracket families

13 clusters across 14 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will Kelsey” vs “Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Kelsey

2 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$94

Cluster 3

Will Rhyne Howard lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$30

Cluster 4

Will Kayla McBride lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Allisha Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Jewell Loyd lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Sabrina Ionescu lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Cecilia Zandalasini lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Sonia Citron lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Chelsea Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Sophie Cunningham lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Napheesa Collier lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Bridget Carleton lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability represents the odds that Kelsey Mitchell will lead the WNBA in three-pointers made during the 2026 regular season. At 11%, the market views Mitchell as a moderate contender but not among the favorites. The primary drivers are shooting volume and efficiency—Mitchell would need both consistent playing time and a high three-point attempt rate to lead the league. Caitlin Clark (29¢) and Rhyne Howard (28¢) are favored, suggesting the market expects one of them to hold the league lead. The prediction will resolve definitively in April 2027 when final 2026 regular season statistics are compiled, depending on each player's games played, minutes per game, and three-point shooting rates across the season.

  • Kelsey Mitchell's career three-point attempt rate (currently among league leaders at ~6 attempts per game) must remain elevated throughout 2026
  • Mitchell's availability and games played matter significantly—injury or reduced playing time would substantially lower her chances of leading the league
  • Caitlin Clark and Rhyne Howard currently trade at 29¢ and 28¢ respectively, indicating the market expects one of these two to lead rather than Mitchell
  • No player has led the WNBA in three-pointers made with fewer than ~240 makes in recent seasons, requiring consistency over a full 40-game season
  • Mitchell's shooting efficiency from three must remain competitive with other high-volume shooters to accumulate the highest total count

What moved the line

  • Sep 10Caitlin Clark3pp25¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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