Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$124
14 contracts
Closes
Nov 8, 2026
58 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
13 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will Kelsey” vs “Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Kelsey
Will Kelsey Mitchell lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Mitchell
KXLEADERWNBA3PT-2026-KMITCHELL0
Will Kelsey Plum lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season?: Kelsey Plum
KXLEADERWNBA3PT-2026-KPLUM10
Cluster 2
Will Caitlin Clark lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Rhyne Howard lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Kayla McBride lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Allisha Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Jewell Loyd lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Sabrina Ionescu lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Cecilia Zandalasini lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Sonia Citron lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will Chelsea Gray lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Sophie Cunningham lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Napheesa Collier lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 13
Will Bridget Carleton lead Women's Pro Basketball in total three pointers made for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This probability represents the odds that Kelsey Mitchell will lead the WNBA in three-pointers made during the 2026 regular season. At 11%, the market views Mitchell as a moderate contender but not among the favorites. The primary drivers are shooting volume and efficiency—Mitchell would need both consistent playing time and a high three-point attempt rate to lead the league. Caitlin Clark (29¢) and Rhyne Howard (28¢) are favored, suggesting the market expects one of them to hold the league lead. The prediction will resolve definitively in April 2027 when final 2026 regular season statistics are compiled, depending on each player's games played, minutes per game, and three-point shooting rates across the season.
- ›Kelsey Mitchell's career three-point attempt rate (currently among league leaders at ~6 attempts per game) must remain elevated throughout 2026
- ›Mitchell's availability and games played matter significantly—injury or reduced playing time would substantially lower her chances of leading the league
- ›Caitlin Clark and Rhyne Howard currently trade at 29¢ and 28¢ respectively, indicating the market expects one of these two to lead rather than Mitchell
- ›No player has led the WNBA in three-pointers made with fewer than ~240 makes in recent seasons, requiring consistency over a full 40-game season
- ›Mitchell's shooting efficiency from three must remain competitive with other high-volume shooters to accumulate the highest total count
What moved the line
- Sep 10Caitlin Clark↑3pp2→5¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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