Leicester City FC vs. Hull City AFC - More Markets
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 20 contracts. Kalshi at 39%, Polymarket at 37%.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
8 contracts
Polymarket
37%
12 contracts
Cross-venue gap
2pp
tight
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$602 · Kalshi
30-day trend
Cross-venue edge
Kalshi 39¢ · Polymarket 37¢ · 2pp spread
Buy on Polymarket (37¢, 12 contracts) and sell on Kalshi (39¢) — assuming both contracts settle on the same outcome.
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino” vs “Will Zero Tenacity win”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: Montevideo City Torque (-1.5)
0xfaa73b…37c0
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino: CD Palestino
0x3299d6…ce11
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: O/U 1.5
0x69428f…bd63
Montevideo City Torque vs. CD Palestino - More Markets: CD Palestino (-1.5)
0x3516b5…3b92
Cluster 2
Will Zero Tenacity win
Will Zero Tenacity win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win map 2 in the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2MAP-26MAY031100Z10NGX-2-Z10
Will Zero Tenacity win the REKONIX vs. Zero Tenacity Dota 2 match?: Zero Tenacity
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY040500RNXZ10-Z10
Cluster 3
New York City FC vs. Los Angeles FC - More Markets
Cluster 4
Tochigi City FC vs. Yokohama FC
Cluster 5
Will Kansas City win the Pro Football AFC
Cluster 6
Mumbai City FC vs. East Bengal FC
Cluster 7
Will REKONIX win
Cluster 8
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match
Will Nigma Galaxy win the Zero Tenacity vs. Nigma Galaxy Dota 2 match?: Nigma Galaxy
KXDOTA2GAME-26MAY031100Z10NGX-NGX
What moved the line
- May 3Tochigi City FC↓16pp50→34¢ · Polymarket
- May 2Zero Tenacity↑10pp12→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Nigma Galaxy↑9pp70→79¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Yokohama FC (-2.5)↑4pp34→38¢ · Polymarket
- May 3Zero Tenacity↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 4 min ago.