Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
9 contracts
Closes
Apr 8, 2027
198 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Anthony Kim to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 2
Cameron Smith to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 3
Dustin Johnson to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 4
Thomas Detry to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 5
Jon Rahm to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 6
Bryson DeChambeau to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 7
Phil Mickelson to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 8
Elvis Smylie to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Cluster 9
Sergio Garcia to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)
Analysis
This market reflects the likelihood that professional golfer Jon Rahm will participate in at least one LIV Golf event during the first quarter of 2027. At 13%, the probability suggests market participants see this outcome as unlikely but not remote. Rahm's participation depends primarily on his continued involvement with LIV Golf and his tournament schedule decisions, with Q1 2027 being a typical competitive season for established tour players. The main driver is whether Rahm remains an active LIV competitor versus potentially pursuing PGA Tour participation or other golf opportunities. The critical uncertainty resolves once Q1 2027 tournament fields are announced and finalized, likely occurring in late 2026 and early 2027. Comparable markets show Anthony Kim and Cameron Smith both trading at 26¢, suggesting Rahm's lower probability may reflect different career circumstances or contractual status relative to other LIV players.
- ›Jon Rahm's current LIV Golf contract status and whether he retains an active playing commitment through Q1 2027
- ›The specific LIV Golf tournament schedule for Q1 2027 and which events are confirmed to occur during that period
- ›Rahm's injury history and physical availability, given any recent medical issues that could affect participation rates
- ›Comparative pricing of other LIV players (Anthony Kim and Cameron Smith at 26¢ versus Rahm at 13¢) suggests market assessment of differential likelihood based on known circumstances
- ›Official LIV Golf field announcements for Q1 2027 events, which would provide definitive resolution data
What moved the line
- Sep 17Dustin Johnson↓52pp59→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Elvis Smylie↑47pp8→55¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Thomas Detry↑46pp8→54¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Thomas Detry↓45pp54→9¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Elvis Smylie↓45pp55→10¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 3d
- Will Barack Obama endorse Graham Platner in Maine Senate before Nov 3, 2026last 83% · 5d
- Will Trump order lower tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 64% · 9d
- Will Trump order new or increased tariffs on Canada before Dec 1, 2026last 66% · 9d
- Will average **gas prices** be above $3.25last 84% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.