Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 110 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 16 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 119 thousand
Outcomes
16
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Above 120 thousand
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 27, 2027
222 days
Venue
Kalshi
16 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 1
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 100 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 100
KXLMTA-27JANF35-100
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 126 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 126 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-126000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 125 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 125 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-125000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 124 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 124 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-124000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 123 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 123 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-123000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 122 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 122 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-122000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 121 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 121 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-121000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 120 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 120 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-120000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 119 thousand headcount in fiscal 2026?: Above 119 thousand
KXLMTA-27JANHEAD-119000
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 170 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 170
KXLMTA-27JANF35-170
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 160 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 160
KXLMTA-27JANF35-160
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 150 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 150
KXLMTA-27JANF35-150
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 140 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 140
KXLMTA-27JANF35-140
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 130 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 130
KXLMTA-27JANF35-130
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 120 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 120
KXLMTA-27JANF35-120
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 110 f-35 aircraft deliveries in fiscal 2026?: Above 110
KXLMTA-27JANF35-110
Analysis
The market assigns a 97% probability that Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 110 F-35 aircraft during fiscal year 2026. This reflects confidence in sustained production rates, though volumes remain below the higher thresholds of 125 or 170 units. The primary drivers are Lockheed's demonstrated F-35 manufacturing capacity and multi-year contracts with the U.S. Department of Defense and international partners, balanced against potential constraints from supply chain disruptions, workforce availability, or engineering delays. The resolution hinges on Lockheed Martin's Q4 2026 earnings report, typically released in early 2027, when the company will disclose final delivery figures for the fiscal year. Current market pricing shows high confidence in clearing 100 units but declining odds at higher delivery levels, suggesting consensus around 110-125 deliveries rather than the 170-unit scenario.
- ›Lockheed Martin delivered 156 F-35s in FY2024 according to public reports, establishing recent baseline capacity above the 110-unit threshold
- ›Supply chain constraints for engine components and advanced materials have impacted aerospace production industry-wide in 2024-2025
- ›U.S. and allied government F-35 procurement schedules are contractually committed through 2026, creating demand certainty
- ›Production rates depend on workforce staffing levels and facility utilization at Fort Worth, Texas and partner sites
- ›Resolution occurs with FY2026 earnings disclosure (expected early 2027), providing definitive delivery count
What moved the line
- Sep 10Above 119 thousand↓55pp94→39¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 120 thousand↓37pp93→56¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 121 thousand↓36pp91→55¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 122 thousand↓34pp85→51¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Above 120↓4pp77→73¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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