Will Ellie and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$230
18 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
69 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 33% of their title tokens — “Will Angelista” vs “Will Lola”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Angelista
Will Angelista and Chidi finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Chidi
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R3-ANCH
Will Angelista and Simba finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and Simba
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R3-ANSI
Will Angelista and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Angelista and George
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R3-ANGE
Cluster 2
Will Lola
Will Lola and George finish 2 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and George
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R2-LOGE
Will Lola and Sean finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and Sean
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31RTOP3-LOSE
Will Lola and Sean finish 3rd in Love Island UK Season 13?: Lola and Sean
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R3-LOSE
Cluster 3
Will Jasmine
Will Jasmine and Lorenzo finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine and Lorenzo
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31RTOP3-JALO
Will Jasmine and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine and George
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R3-JAGE
Will Jasmine and Samraj finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Jasmine and Samraj
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31RTOP3-JASA
Cluster 4
Will Ellie
Will Ellie and Lorenzo finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Ellie and Lorenzo
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31RTOP3-ELLO
Will Ellie and George finish 3 Place in Love Island UK Season 13?: Ellie and George
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31R3-ELGE
Will Ellie and Chidi finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island UK Season 13?: Ellie and Chidi
KXLOVEISLANDUKRANK-26AUG31RTOP3-ELCH
Cluster 5
Will Mica
Cluster 6
Will Robyn
Cluster 7
Will Namibia
Analysis
This market reflects a 5% probability that Ellie and George will finish in third place in Love Island UK Season 13. The low odds suggest market participants view this pairing as unlikely to reach the final three, relative to other competing combinations like Angelista and George (6%) or Jasmine and George (4%). The probability is driven by two main dynamics: the relative popularity and coupling stability of Ellie and George compared to other pairings shown in contract prices, and the overall trajectory of their relationship within the villa. The market will resolve when the season finale airs, at which point the final three couples and their placement will be determined, providing complete certainty on this outcome.
- ›George is priced higher with Angelista (6%) than with Ellie (5%), suggesting market participants view the Angelista pairing as more likely to advance
- ›Ellie and George's coupling stability and screen time relative to competing pairs (Jasmine and George at 4%, Angelista and George at 4% for third place) indicates market sentiment on their viability
- ›Third-place finishes require both partners to remain coupled through the penultimate elimination, which depends on viewer voting and producer editing decisions not yet aired
- ›The 5% probability sits between zero (impossible) and higher pairing odds, suggesting the market assigns meaningful but low odds to this specific combination advancing to final three
- ›Contract volume at $94 24h is moderate, indicating some trading activity but less conviction than the 6¢ Angelista-George contract at $266 volume
What moved the line
- Jun 16Lola and Sean↑12pp27→39¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Lola and Sean↑8pp39→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Lola and Sean↑3pp47→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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