Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 52 in the first such poll released after July 28, 2026
Leader sits at 88% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 79%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 56%
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
79¢
At least 58%
Spread
9pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
104 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 56 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 56%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL56
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 72 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 72%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL72
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 70 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 70%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL70
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 68 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 68%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL68
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 66 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 66%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL66
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 64 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 64%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL64
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 62 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 62%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL62
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 60 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 60%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL60
Will the percentage of New York City respondents who say they have a favorable opinion of Zohran Mamdani in Siena University’s poll be at least 58 in the first such poll released after Aug 13, 2026?: At least 58%
KXMAMDANIPOLL-26AUG13-AL58
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Zohran Mamdani will have at least 52% favorable opinion among New York City respondents in Siena University's next poll after July 28, 2026. Mamdani, a New York State Assemblymember from Brooklyn, has a political base in one of the state's most liberal districts, which supports relatively high baseline favorability in NYC polling. The 93% probability indicates market confidence he'll exceed the 52% threshold, though the steep price drop to 13% for 64% favorability suggests significant uncertainty about his support ceiling. The main drivers are Mamdani's current standing in recent NYC-specific polling, any major political developments affecting his profile, and the specific methodology Siena University applies to its next survey. Resolution depends entirely on when Siena releases its next poll containing NYC respondent breakdowns and favorable opinion metrics.
- ›Mamdani's previous favorable ratings in NYC-specific polling data from recent months
- ›Whether the next Siena poll is released in 2026 or later, and the time lag between today and that release
- ›Political events between now and the poll's release that could shift his favorability trajectory
- ›The size and composition of the NYC subsample in Siena's poll, which affects statistical reliability of the favorability measure
- ›Whether 'favorable opinion' is measured on a standard approve/disapprove scale or a different favorability framework
What moved the line
- Sep 17At least 66%↑7pp34→41¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18At least 66%↓7pp41→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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