Will Viola Cheptoo win the New York City Marathon Women's Open Division

30-day trend

Analysis

This 11% probability reflects the market's assessment that Viola Cheptoo has roughly a 1-in-9 chance of winning the 2026 New York City Marathon women's division. The probability reflects her competitive standing relative to other elite distance runners who are expected to compete. Market pricing for marathon outcomes typically depends on recent race performance, marathon-specific experience, course history, and field composition. The primary catalyst that would resolve this uncertainty is the race itself, scheduled for early November 2026, which will determine the actual winner. Between now and then, factors like injury announcements, tune-up race results, or official field confirmations could shift probabilities as new information about competitor health and readiness emerges.

• ›Viola Cheptoo's finishing times and placements in marathon competitions during 2024-2026 relative to other women elite runners expected to compete in NYC
• ›Recent performance trends in half-marathons or 10K races that might indicate current fitness level and form
• ›Confirmation of the final elite women's field and any withdrawals or additions of competitors between now and November 2026
• ›Historical data on how frequently runners with similar personal records and recent form win major marathons
• ›Course-specific factors such as whether Cheptoo has previously run the NYC Marathon course and how her performance compared

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds