SimpleFunctions
14 source contracts·Kalshi 14·refreshed just now·Closes Apr 27, 2027 · 244d

Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 14 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

5%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

5%

14 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$80K

14 contracts

Closes

Apr 27, 2027

244 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 3% (20 days, 20 points)Aggregate: 3% on 2026-08-26
Aggregate of 14 contracts · 20d

Bracket families

14 clusters across 14 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will St. John's win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$70K

Cluster 2

Will Arkansas win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$3K

Cluster 3

Will Arizona win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 4

Will Kansas win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 5

Will Michigan win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$1K

Cluster 6

Will Gonzaga win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$894

Cluster 7

Will Kentucky win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$689

Cluster 8

Will Louisville win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$602

Cluster 9

Will Florida win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$429

Cluster 10

Will North Carolina win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$380

Cluster 11

Will Duke win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$157

Cluster 12

Will Houston win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$141

Cluster 13

Will UConn win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$7

Cluster 14

Will Illinois win the College Basketball National Championship

1 contract$7

Analysis

This 6% probability indicates traders see Indiana as an unlikely winner of the 2026-27 college basketball championship. Indiana's low odds reflect either questions about roster composition, recent performance, or competitive depth in the conference. The probability would shift based on preseason performance metrics, recruiting class evaluations, and comparative strength assessments against established contenders like Florida (12%) and Illinois (8%). The main uncertainty resolver will be the actual start of the 2026-27 season in November, when early tournament results and team performance against ranked opponents provide concrete evidence of championship viability. Significant roster changes through transfer portal activity or injury updates could also meaningfully adjust expectations before play begins.

  • Indiana's current odds are 50% of Florida's probability and 75% of Illinois's, suggesting analytical consensus views both as notably stronger championship contenders
  • Kalshi shows only 11 active contracts for Indiana versus comparable volume on Florida ($1,985 24h) and Arkansas ($4,072 24h), indicating lower trading interest and thinner liquidity
  • The 6% probability implies Indiana would need to win approximately 1 in 17 hypothetical championship tournaments, consistent with a tournament bid team but not a preseason favorite
  • Early-season non-conference performance and conference standings through January will provide the primary data for reassessing Indiana's championship probability
  • Transfer portal acquisitions and injuries sustained through fall camp represent the main catalysts that could shift Indiana's odds before season play begins

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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