Will Indiana win the College Basketball National Championship

30-day trend

Analysis

This 6% probability indicates traders see Indiana as an unlikely winner of the 2026-27 college basketball championship. Indiana's low odds reflect either questions about roster composition, recent performance, or competitive depth in the conference. The probability would shift based on preseason performance metrics, recruiting class evaluations, and comparative strength assessments against established contenders like Florida (12%) and Illinois (8%). The main uncertainty resolver will be the actual start of the 2026-27 season in November, when early tournament results and team performance against ranked opponents provide concrete evidence of championship viability. Significant roster changes through transfer portal activity or injury updates could also meaningfully adjust expectations before play begins.

• ›Indiana's current odds are 50% of Florida's probability and 75% of Illinois's, suggesting analytical consensus views both as notably stronger championship contenders
• ›Kalshi shows only 11 active contracts for Indiana versus comparable volume on Florida ($1,985 24h) and Arkansas ($4,072 24h), indicating lower trading interest and thinner liquidity
• ›The 6% probability implies Indiana would need to win approximately 1 in 17 hypothetical championship tournaments, consistent with a tournament bid team but not a preseason favorite
• ›Early-season non-conference performance and conference standings through January will provide the primary data for reassessing Indiana's championship probability
• ›Transfer portal acquisitions and injuries sustained through fall camp represent the main catalysts that could shift Indiana's odds before season play begins

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds