Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 46100 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract asks whether McDonald's will operate more than 46,100 restaurants globally in its Q2 2026 earnings report, due in late July 2026. The 88% probability reflects strong confidence in continued systemwide expansion. McDonald's has historically grown its restaurant count year-over-year, though the pace varies with economic conditions, franchise development activity, and company strategy. The main uncertainty centers on whether closures in specific markets might offset new openings. Resolution depends entirely on the official Q2 2026 restaurant count disclosed in McDonald's earnings announcement, expected in late July. Market pricing also suggests confidence in moderate comparable sales growth, which typically correlates with expansion willingness.

• ›McDonald's reported approximately 41,215 systemwide restaurants as of Q1 2026; achieving 46,100+ requires ~4,900 net new openings in one quarter, or the question may reference a different baseline or measurement date
• ›Franchise development velocity and approval rates in key markets (US, China, India, Europe) directly determine new unit additions; slowdowns in any major region would pressure the outcome downward
• ›Net restaurant closures from market exits, underperformance, or economic pressure in mature markets (e.g., Russia, UK) offset gross openings and represent the primary downside risk
• ›The Q2 2026 earnings release date and the exact restaurant count methodology McDonald's uses in its official disclosure will mechanically determine the outcome; no discretion or interpretation applies

What moved the line

• Jun 21Above 3%↑5pp12→17¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Above 3.5%↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 21Above 2.5%↑4pp15→19¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Above 45900↓4pp81→77¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 17Above 46100↓4pp45→41¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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