Will Die Linke win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$490
2 contracts
Closes
Sep 20, 2027
361 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
Will AfD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?: AfD
KXMECKLENBURGVORPOMMERN-26SEP20-AFD
Cluster 2
Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election
Will SPD win the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election?: SPD
KXMECKLENBURGVORPOMMERN-26SEP20-SPD
Analysis
This probability reflects the estimated likelihood that Die Linke will win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern state election, scheduled for September 2026. The 50% level suggests Die Linke is competitive but faces significant uncertainty. Current polling and recent election dynamics in this eastern German state will drive movements: Die Linke's ability to maintain or grow support, AfD's performance, and SPD's positioning all matter. The election itself on September 26, 2026, will provide definitive results. Between now and then, published opinion polls, campaign developments, and any shifts in the political landscape could shift probability materially. The outcome depends on vote share distribution and coalition dynamics—whether Die Linke achieves a plurality depends on how votes split across SPD, AfD, Greens, and other parties.
- ›Published polling averages in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern for Die Linke support in the weeks before September 26, 2026
- ›Relative performance of AfD and SPD in the state, since a three-way split affects Die Linke's plurality chances
- ›Die Linke's historical performance in this state and recent trend in support levels
- ›Coalition and governing dynamics post-election, which may affect how Die Linke's plurality position is valued
- ›Any major campaign events, scandals, or policy announcements affecting voter preferences in the final weeks before the election
What moved the line
- Sep 18SPD↑24pp23→47¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18AfD↓20pp69→49¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19AfD↓9pp49→40¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19SPD↑5pp47→52¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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