Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election
Leader sits at 84% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Stacey Plaskett
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg
Spread
81pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
405 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?: Stacey Plaskett
KXUSVIGOV-26-SPLA
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?: Warren Mosler
KXUSVIGOV-26-WMOS
Who will win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election?: Adlah “Foncie” Donastorg
KXUSVIGOV-26-ADON
Analysis
Prediction markets currently price Stacey Plaskett as a 74% favorite to win the 2026 U.S. Virgin Islands gubernatorial election, meaning traders estimate roughly three-in-four odds she will be the next governor. Plaskett, a former U.S. House delegate, holds a commanding lead over the next-closest candidate at 6%. Her advantage likely reflects name recognition, incumbency association, and recent polling or endorsement data, though the race remains contested with multiple viable challengers. The November 2026 general election will resolve this market. Key uncertainties include potential changes in campaign momentum, turnout dynamics, and whether undecided voters in the territory lean toward Plaskett or fragment among alternative candidates. Trading volume on Plaskett's contract ($16 in 24-hour volume) is significantly higher than alternatives, suggesting market participants view her as the decisive favorite but remain active in pricing near-term shifts.
- ›Plaskett holds a 68-point probability gap over the second-place candidate, indicating market consensus on a substantial but not insurmountable lead
- ›The four alternative candidates collectively price at roughly 21%, leaving meaningful uncertainty about who prevails if Plaskett loses ground
- ›Highest trading volume concentrates on Plaskett's contract ($16 24h vol vs. $3–$6 for others), suggesting confidence in her position but active repricing during the campaign
- ›The general election is scheduled for November 2026, approximately 16 months away, leaving substantial time for campaign dynamics, polling shifts, and endorsements to alter probabilities
- ›Multi-candidate race structure means Plaskett wins if she receives plurality or majority support, depending on territory election rules, creating different pathways than a two-candidate contest
What moved the line
- Sep 18Stacey Plaskett↑49pp37→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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