Will Patea win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 29% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
29%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
3 contracts
Closes
Sep 18, 2027
363 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tuiloma Laneselota Lameko win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election
Cluster 2
Will Aperila Vaa Tiai win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election
Will Aperila Vaa Tiai win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election?: Aperila Vaa Tiai
KXFALEALILI1-26SEP18-SEUM
Cluster 3
Will Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election
Analysis
This probability reflects betting market expectations that Patea will win the 2026 Falealili 1 by-election in Samoa at 12%, making Patea a significant underdog. The relatively low probability likely reflects limited market information about Patea's campaign organization, local support base, or political backing compared to frontrunner Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale, who is priced at 29 cents. The by-election outcome will ultimately depend on voter turnout in the Falealili 1 constituency, candidate campaign effectiveness, and local political dynamics in that specific electoral district. The election itself will resolve all uncertainty around these candidates, though the exact date and any campaign developments between now and voting should clarify which candidate has genuine on-the-ground support.
- ›Patea trades at 3 cents on Kalshi with only $14 in 24-hour volume, indicating minimal market liquidity and potentially thin information flowing to traders on this candidate's viability
- ›Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale is the clear market favorite at 29 cents, suggesting traders view this candidate as substantially stronger than Patea based on available information
- ›Fuaolemoli Falaila Faausu Allen trades at 6 cents with the highest volume ($150 in 24h), indicating this candidate receives more trader attention than Patea despite similar pricing
- ›The four-candidate spread (Auseugalelei, Fuaolemoli, Aperila, and others above Patea) suggests market participants have differentiated views on candidate strength rather than treating outcomes as equally likely
- ›Low overall volume across all contracts ($227 total 24h) suggests limited information discovery in the market and potential for probability shifts as new campaign or polling data emerges
What moved the line
- Sep 19Aperila Vaa Tiai↑55pp26→81¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Auseugalelei Uiti Lagavale↓16pp19→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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