Will FDP win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 61% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
2 contracts
Closes
Sep 6, 2027
347 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will FDP win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Will FDP win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: FDP
KXSAXANHONE-26SEP06-FDP
Cluster 2
Will Greens win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election
Will Greens win at least 1 seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election?: Greens
KXSAXANHONE-26SEP06-GRE
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that the FDP will secure at least one seat in the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election. The 31% market probability suggests modest but meaningful chances, though notably lower than predictions for larger parties. The FDP's performance depends heavily on whether it can sustain support above Germany's 5% national threshold, which varies significantly by state. Historical volatility in FDP support, combined with regional political dynamics in Saxony-Anhalt, creates substantial uncertainty. The resolution will occur on election day when official vote tallies are released, providing a clear binary outcome. Observers track FDP polling trends in the state and broader coalition dynamics among parties competing for relevance in eastern German elections.
- ›FDP's standing in Saxony-Anhalt polling relative to state-specific 5% threshold barriers
- ›Historical FDP volatility and recent performance in eastern German state elections
- ›Relative strength of competing small parties (Greens at 19¢, BSW at 41¢) in the same electoral contest
- ›Timing and methodology of official polling releases between now and election day
- ›Strategic voting patterns and coalition signals that may influence voter behavior toward smaller parties
What moved the line
- Sep 18Greens↑7pp90→97¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (61% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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