Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 5, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability represents traders' assessment that American Horror Story Season 13 will premiere in the USA before October 1, 2026—roughly four and a half months from now. The 85% confidence reflects the show's established fall premiere pattern and production timeline, though actual release dates depend on FX's scheduling decisions and any production delays. The contract pricing reveals skepticism about an early September premiere (19%), with most traders betting on a mid-to-late September window. The key uncertainty is whether the network will maintain its typical September slot or shift to October, which would occur if post-production extends beyond expectations or competing programming needs adjustment.

• ›American Horror Story has historically premiered in September, with Season 12 debuting September 22, 2023, establishing a precedent traders are pricing in
• ›The contract cascade shows a sharp jump from 19¢ (before Sep 5) to 85¢ (before Oct 1), indicating traders cluster expectations around late September rather than early fall
• ›FX's official announcement of a specific premiere date would immediately resolve uncertainty; as of May 2026, no public confirmation of Season 13's exact air date appears reflected in current market pricing
• ›Production completion status and post-production timeline for Season 13 directly determine whether the show can feasibly launch in September or faces delay into October
• ›Competing fall programming schedules and FX network priorities may influence whether Season 13 secures its traditional September slot or faces rescheduling

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds