Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before September 1, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Mexico will resume oil shipments to Cuba within 67 days (by September 1, 2026). Mexico halted such exports due to U.S. sanctions pressure and diplomatic concerns. The 36% probability for October suggests traders see resumption as unlikely but plausible. The probability gradient across the four dates—3% for July, 13% for August, 21% for September, 36% for October—indicates low near-term momentum but gradual accumulation of probability over time. Key drivers include U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations, Mexican domestic political constraints, and Cuba's negotiating position. Any official Mexican government statement authorizing exports would be the primary resolution catalyst.

• ›Mexico's oil production capacity and export volumes relative to domestic demand and other international commitments
• ›Current U.S. administration policy toward Cuba sanctions enforcement and diplomatic pressure on Mexico
• ›Public statements or official actions by Mexican government officials regarding Cuba energy trade eligibility
• ›Market volume concentration: July contract shows $1449 in 24-hour volume while September shows $0, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unstable price discovery
• ›Timeline compression: only 67 days remain until the September 1 reference date, limiting time for diplomatic or policy shifts

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