1 source contract·Kalshi 1·refreshed just now·Closes Nov 3, 2027 · 496d

Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 67% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

67%

0%50%100%

Kalshi

67%

1 contract

Polymarket

—

not bound

Cross-venue gap

—

single venue

24h move

—

no pin

24h volume

1 contracts

Closes

Nov 3, 2027

496 days

Open top contract Read answer election 2026

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?: Dan Schwartz67¢$1

30-day trend

Aggregate of 1 contract · 12d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01

1 contract$1

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?: Dan Schwartz

KXMDPRIMARY-01D26-DSCH

67¢−13pp$1K→

Analysis

This probability represents the chance that Rushern Baker III becomes the Democratic nominee for Maryland's 5th Congressional District. At 26%, the market suggests he is neither the frontrunner nor an unlikely candidate. The probability reflects uncertainty about the district's competitive dynamics, candidate field composition, and voter preferences in what appears to be an open seat or contested primary. Key drivers include whether other strong candidates enter the race, Baker's fundraising performance relative to rivals, and his name recognition and endorsement levels. The primary election date would be the critical juncture resolving this uncertainty, as it would determine whether Baker advances through the nomination process.

›The size and strength of the overall candidate field—whether Baker faces one main competitor or a crowded primary field
›Baker's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to other potential Democratic nominees
›Primary election timing and the date voters will actually cast ballots for the Democratic nomination
›Local endorsements from party officials, labor unions, and community organizations backing specific candidates
›Historical primary turnout patterns and voter demographics in MD-05 that may advantage or disadvantage particular candidate profiles

What moved the line

Jun 24Dan Schwartz↓13pp93→80¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in election 2026

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (67% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

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