Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 27% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
27%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$64
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
543 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?: Adrian Boafo
KXMDPRIMARY-05D26-ABOA
Cluster 2
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05
Will Harry Dunn be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?: Harry Dunn
KXMDPRIMARY-05D26-HDUN
Cluster 3
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05
Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05?: Rushern Baker III
KXMDPRIMARY-05D26-RBAK
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Rushern Baker III becomes the Democratic nominee for Maryland's 5th Congressional District. At 26%, the market suggests he is neither the frontrunner nor an unlikely candidate. The probability reflects uncertainty about the district's competitive dynamics, candidate field composition, and voter preferences in what appears to be an open seat or contested primary. Key drivers include whether other strong candidates enter the race, Baker's fundraising performance relative to rivals, and his name recognition and endorsement levels. The primary election date would be the critical juncture resolving this uncertainty, as it would determine whether Baker advances through the nomination process.
- ›The size and strength of the overall candidate field—whether Baker faces one main competitor or a crowded primary field
- ›Baker's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to other potential Democratic nominees
- ›Primary election timing and the date voters will actually cast ballots for the Democratic nomination
- ›Local endorsements from party officials, labor unions, and community organizations backing specific candidates
- ›Historical primary turnout patterns and voter demographics in MD-05 that may advantage or disadvantage particular candidate profiles
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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