Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race
Leader sits at 60% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 28%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Abdul El-Sayed
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
28¢
Mike Rogers
Spread
32pp
contested
24h volume
$8K
modest
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
496 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will win the 2026 Michigan Senate race
Analysis
Abdul El-Sayed is currently priced at 38% to win Michigan's 2026 Senate race, indicating markets view him as the frontrunner but not an overwhelming favorite. Mike Rogers at 24% and Mallory McMorrow at 25% remain competitive alternatives, suggesting substantial uncertainty about the general election dynamics. The probability reflects expectations about candidate viability, Democratic base enthusiasm, and Republicans' ability to mobilize against the Democratic nominee. Factors that could shift this include primary results, candidate fundraising trajectories, economic conditions affecting voter sentiment, and polling showing shifts in swing-voter preferences. Major catalyst points include the Democratic primary vote scheduled for early 2026 and subsequent general election polling, which will clarify whether the frontrunner maintains support or faces erosion to challengers.
- ›Democratic primary outcome will determine the nominee and their subsequent matchup strength against Republican opposition
- ›Polling trends in Michigan swing counties and among independent voters will influence viability calculations as the general election approaches
- ›Fundraising and campaign infrastructure levels for El-Sayed relative to Rogers and McMorrow suggest resource constraints that may affect voter reach
- ›Turnout expectations in Michigan's core Democratic areas versus suburban and rural regions will determine which candidate's coalition is viable
- ›National political environment and approval ratings of the incumbent administration will shape overall partisan lean going into November 2026
What moved the line
- Jun 24Abdul El-Sayed↑7pp54→61¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Mike Rogers↓6pp31→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Abdul El-Sayed↓4pp56→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Abdul El-Sayed↓3pp52→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Abdul El-Sayed↑3pp51→54¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Democrats Firming as Favorites to Hold House in 2026
Democrats have strengthened their position to retain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms, with contracts rising to 78¢. This shift comes amid strong fundraising and favorable special election results, challenging the historical midterm penalty for the president's party. The Senate race remains a toss-up, with Republicans at 57¢ to take control.
Democratic House Control Strongly Favored at 78¢
Traders are pricing in a 78% probability that Democrats will win control of the House in 2026, while the Senate remains a toss-up with Republicans at 57¢. This balance of power scenario is a key input for midterm election trading strategies.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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