Will Tarik Skubal win AL Cy Young
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
2 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
168 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young
Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young?: Cam Schlittler
KXMLBALCY-26-CSCH
Cluster 2
Will Dylan Cease win AL Cy Young
Will Dylan Cease win AL Cy Young?: Dylan Cease
KXMLBALCY-26-DCEA
Analysis
This market reflects a 9% chance that Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal wins the American League Cy Young Award, given to the league's best pitcher each season. The current low probability likely reflects Skubal's performance trajectory through early May and competition from other pitchers. The award is determined by voting after the regular season concludes in late September, with the winner announced in November. Performance metrics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched through the season's final week will directly influence voting outcomes. Early-season form often correlates with full-season success, though injuries, mid-season slumps, or breakout performances from competitors could significantly shift probabilities.
- ›Skubal's ERA and strikeout rate through May 2026 compared to other AL contenders
- ›Whether Skubal avoids significant injuries between May and September that could derail his candidacy
- ›Changes in his team's record and playoff positioning, which influence voter perception
- ›Emergence or decline of rival pitchers like Cam Schlittler (17¢) or other untracked candidates
- ›Voting recency bias typically favors strong September performances over early-season results
What moved the line
- Jun 20Cam Schlittler↑14pp40→54¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Dylan Cease↑5pp14→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 21Dylan Cease↓4pp21→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Cam Schlittler↓3pp43→40¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22Cam Schlittler↓3pp54→51¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 3d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 4d
- Tennessee Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 64% · 4d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 4d
- Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikeslast 97% · 4d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (33% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.