Will Mark Kotsay win AL MOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 18% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
18%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
106 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY
Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY?: Aaron Boone
KXMLBALMOTY-26-ABOO
Cluster 2
Will Chad Tracy win AL MOTY
Will Chad Tracy win AL MOTY?: Chad Tracy
KXMLBALMOTY-26-CTRA
Cluster 3
Will Will Venable win AL MOTY
Will Will Venable win AL MOTY?: Will Venable
KXMLBALMOTY-26-WVEN
Cluster 4
Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY
Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY?: Kevin Cash
KXMLBALMOTY-26-KCAS
Cluster 5
Will A.J. Hinch win AL MOTY
Will A.J. Hinch win AL MOTY?: A.J. Hinch
KXMLBALMOTY-26-AHIN
Cluster 6
Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY
Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY?: Skip Schumaker
KXMLBALMOTY-26-SSCH
Analysis
Mark Kotsay's 24% probability reflects betting markets' assessment of his chances to win the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award. The market prices him as a moderate contender, behind Will Venable (44%) and Chad Tracy (38%), but ahead of Kevin Cash (14%). Kotsay's position is likely driven by his team's regular-season performance through August, including wins, losses, and playoff positioning. The main factors supporting a higher probability would be strong team performance and statistical advancement in win-loss records over the remaining season weeks. The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September 2026, with voting and announcement typically occurring in early October. Until then, market sentiment will adjust based on real-time team performance, injury developments, and playoff race dynamics that influence perceived managerial impact.
- ›Kotsay's team's win-loss record and standings position relative to other AL teams managed by competing candidates
- ›Performance trajectory from August through season end in late September, including whether his team gains or loses games in the pennant race
- ›Individual manager narratives and storylines (turnarounds, first-year success, overcoming obstacles) that voters weigh in award deliberations
- ›Relative performance gaps between Kotsay and the three managers trading at higher probabilities (Venable, Tracy, Cash)
- ›Voting patterns from previous years showing what statistical metrics (wins, improvement, playoff success) most influence AL MOTY selections
What moved the line
- Aug 17Will Venable↑13pp44→57¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18A.J. Hinch↓8pp11→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Kevin Cash↓6pp16→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Chad Tracy↑5pp20→25¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Kevin Cash↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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