Will Mark Kotsay win AL MOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$84
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
149 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Will Venable win AL MOTY
Will Will Venable win AL MOTY?: Will Venable
KXMLBALMOTY-26-WVEN
Cluster 2
Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY
Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY?: Kevin Cash
KXMLBALMOTY-26-KCAS
Cluster 3
Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY
Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY?: Aaron Boone
KXMLBALMOTY-26-ABOO
Cluster 4
Will Craig Albernaz win AL MOTY
Will Craig Albernaz win AL MOTY?: Craig Albernaz
KXMLBALMOTY-26-CALB
Cluster 5
Will Derek Shelton win AL MOTY
Will Derek Shelton win AL MOTY?: Derek Shelton
KXMLBALMOTY-26-DSHE
Cluster 6
Will Dan Wilson win AL MOTY
Will Dan Wilson win AL MOTY?: Dan Wilson
KXMLBALMOTY-26-DWIL
Cluster 7
Will Joe Espada win AL MOTY
Will Joe Espada win AL MOTY?: Joe Espada
KXMLBALMOTY-26-JESP
Cluster 8
Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY
Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY?: Skip Schumaker
KXMLBALMOTY-26-SSCH
Analysis
This 6% probability represents the market's assessment that Mark Kotsay will be named the American League Manager of the Year for the 2026 season. At this level, Kotsay is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other contenders. The probability reflects either that his team is not currently positioned for strong performance, or that other managers have stronger narratives or résumés for the award. The key drivers would be his team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams, the individual performances of other managers' rosters, and any notable midseason improvements or storylines. The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September 2026, when voters select the winner based on managerial performance and team success. Between now and then, team performance, injury situations, and coaching decisions will shape perceptions of his candidacy relative to competitors like Walt Weiss in the NL.
- ›Kotsay's team's current standings and remaining schedule relative to other AL contenders seeking playoff positions
- ›Comparative strength of narratives for other AL manager candidates based on team performance and circumstances
- ›Whether Kotsay's team experiences significant mid-season performance changes (winning streaks, playoff positioning shifts) that alter voter perceptions
- ›Injury or personnel changes that could affect his team's trajectory and his strategic impact for the remainder of the season
- ›Regular season conclusion in late September 2026, when final records determine voting pool and narratives crystallize
What moved the line
- Jul 5Aaron Boone↓8pp9→1¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Aaron Boone↑8pp1→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Will Venable↑5pp41→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Will Venable↑3pp46→49¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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