Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
167 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXMLBALMVP-26-RWIT
Cluster 2
Will Byron Buxton win AL MVP
Will Byron Buxton win AL MVP?: Byron Buxton
KXMLBALMVP-26-BBUX
Cluster 3
Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP
Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?: Yordan Álvarez
KXMLBALMVP-26-YALV
Cluster 4
Will Ben Rice win AL MVP
Will Ben Rice win AL MVP?: Ben Rice
KXMLBALMVP-26-BRIC
Cluster 5
Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP
Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP?: Nick Kurtz
KXMLBALMVP-26-NKUR
Analysis
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Nick Kurtz has a 12% chance of winning the American League MVP award in the 2026 baseball season. The relatively modest probability suggests that while Kurtz is considered a viable candidate, the market views other players as more likely frontrunners. Key drivers of this level include Kurtz's offensive performance through the early season, his team's overall competitiveness, and how his statistics compare to other AL contenders. As the season progresses through May and into the summer months, MVP probability will shift based on accumulated offensive production (batting average, home runs, RBIs, WAR), injury status of Kurtz and competing candidates, and team performance in the standings. The MVP award typically reflects both individual excellence and team success, so the trajectory of his team's win-loss record will be a significant factor. The formal MVP voting occurs in November after the season concludes, though market prices will adjust continuously based on emerging performance data.
- ›Kurtz's year-to-date offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, OPS) compared to other AL MVP contenders
- ›His team's current record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams
- ›Injury status and availability of Kurtz and other top MVP candidates throughout the season
- ›Changes to Kurtz's role or playing time that would affect his season accumulation totals
- ›Historical voting patterns showing whether voters prioritize individual statistics or team success more heavily
What moved the line
- Jun 19Bobby Witt Jr.↓8pp17→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Nick Kurtz↑6pp16→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Bobby Witt Jr.↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Claire Valdez be victorious in the NY-07 Democratic primary AND Brad Lander be victorious in the NY-10 Democratic primary AND Darializa Avila Chevalier be defeated in the NY-13 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 69% · 0d
- Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be victorious in the NY-13 Democratic primary AND Alex Bores be defeated in the NY-12 Democratic primary for Sep 2026last 37% · 1d
- Who will win the 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primarylast 97% · 5d
- Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary Winnerlast 89% · 6d
- Will Databricks' valuation hit __ by December 31?: ↑$180Blast 94% · 6d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.