Will Samuel Basallo win AL ROTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$7K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
103 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Parker Messick win AL ROTY: Parker Messick
Will Parker Messick win AL ROTY: Parker Messick
KXMLBALROTY-26-PMES
Cluster 2
Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY
Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY?: Kevin McGonigle
KXMLBALROTY-26-KMCG
Cluster 3
Will Munetaka Murakami win AL ROTY
Will Munetaka Murakami win AL ROTY?: Munetaka Murakami
KXMLBALROTY-26-MMUR
Cluster 4
Will Hagen Smith win AL ROTY
Will Hagen Smith win AL ROTY?: Hagen Smith
KXMLBALROTY-26-HSMI
Cluster 5
Will Lazaro Montes win AL ROTY
Will Lazaro Montes win AL ROTY?: Lazaro Montes
KXMLBALROTY-26-LMON
Analysis
This 21% probability reflects the market's assessment that Samuel Basallo has roughly a one-in-five chance of winning the American League Rookie of the Year award. The market appears to be pricing in competition from other strong candidates, particularly Kevin McGonigle (currently at 83 cents), suggesting Basallo faces a crowded field. Basallo's probability would move higher if he demonstrates sustained offensive performance over the remainder of the 2026 season, or lower if other rookies pull ahead in traditional ROTY metrics like batting average, home runs, or WAR. The award will be decided after the regular season concludes in late September or early October, when voters evaluate full-season statistics and voting takes place.
- ›Kevin McGonigle trades at 83 cents versus Basallo at 21 cents, indicating market-wide consensus on a clear frontrunner among AL rookies
- ›Munetaka Murakami at 12 cents represents a third viable candidate, fragmenting the probability space across multiple players
- ›ROTY voting typically weighs full-season statistics (plate appearances, hits, ERA, strikeouts depending on position), making remaining 2026 performance directly predictive
- ›The 24-hour volume on competing contracts ($3,777 on McGonigle versus liquidity patterns) reflects active market reassessment as the season progresses
- ›Award voting occurs in October 2026 after the regular season concludes, providing a defined resolution date with no interim measurement points
What moved the line
- Aug 25Munetaka Murakami↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Parker Messick↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 26Parker Messick↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Kevin McGonigle↑3pp79→82¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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