Will Samuel Basallo win AL ROTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$6K
8 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chase DeLauter win AL ROTY
Will Chase DeLauter win AL ROTY?: Chase DeLauter
KXMLBALROTY-26-CDEL
Cluster 2
Will Munetaka Murakami win AL ROTY
Will Munetaka Murakami win AL ROTY?: Munetaka Murakami
KXMLBALROTY-26-MMUR
Cluster 3
Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY
Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY?: Kevin McGonigle
KXMLBALROTY-26-KMCG
Cluster 4
Will Trey Yesavage win AL ROTY
Will Trey Yesavage win AL ROTY?: Trey Yesavage
KXMLBALROTY-26-TYES
Cluster 5
Will Kazuma Okamoto win AL ROTY
Will Kazuma Okamoto win AL ROTY?: Kazuma Okamoto
KXMLBALROTY-26-KOKA
Cluster 6
Will Spencer Jones Jr. win AL ROTY
Will Spencer Jones Jr. win AL ROTY?: Spencer Jones Jr.
KXMLBALROTY-26-SJON
Cluster 7
Will Lazaro Montes win AL ROTY
Will Lazaro Montes win AL ROTY?: Lazaro Montes
KXMLBALROTY-26-LMON
Cluster 8
Will Hagen Smith win AL ROTY
Will Hagen Smith win AL ROTY?: Hagen Smith
KXMLBALROTY-26-HSMI
Analysis
Samuel Basallo's 14% probability reflects market expectations that he will not win the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2026. The market is pricing in competition from other highly-regarded prospects, particularly Kevin McGonigle (40%) and Munetaka Murakami (38%), suggesting Basallo faces significant headwinds despite being in contention. His probability would rise if he demonstrates sustained performance metrics—batting average, on-base percentage, and power numbers—that outpace competing rookies through the season. Conversely, injuries, performance decline, or breakthrough performances by other candidates could lower his odds. The outcome will be determined by year-end statistical comparisons and voting by the Baseball Writers' Association, making mid-season performance data points the key catalyst for probability shifts.
- ›McGonigle and Murakami are currently priced nearly 3x higher, indicating market consensus views them as more likely winners
- ›Basallo's win probability implies approximately 1-in-7 odds, positioning him outside the top two contenders but not eliminated
- ›Year-to-date performance statistics (batting average, slugging percentage, WAR, plate appearances) will be primary determinants of voting consideration
- ›Playing time and injury status throughout the season are critical—ROTY voters typically require substantial major league service time
- ›BBWAA voting typically weights overall offensive production and defensive performance, not just raw talent or prospect rankings
What moved the line
- May 7Munetaka Murakami↓7pp38→31¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Kevin McGonigle↓5pp38→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Kazuma Okamoto↑5pp2→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Munetaka Murakami↑4pp32→36¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Chase DeLauter↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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