Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027
Leader sits at 97% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before May 1, 2027
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
Before Nov 1, 2026
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$6K
modest
Closes
Nov 1, 2028
779 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-27MAY01
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-26NOV01
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-27AUG01
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-28NOV01
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-28MAY01
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-28AUG01
Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-JDEPAULA-27NOV01
Analysis
The 86% probability indicates market participants believe De Paula will play in an MLB game by November 2028, though the much lower prices on earlier dates (6% by May 2027, 7% by August 2027) suggest uncertainty about near-term timing. The probability reflects De Paula's current status in professional baseball development—likely a minor league prospect—and the typical pathway to MLB debut. Key drivers include his progression through the minor league system, organizational depth at his position, and availability of roster spots. The primary uncertainty resolver will be roster decisions during spring training and early-season MLB operations, particularly around roster expansion or injury replacements that might accelerate or delay debut opportunities.
- ›The steep discount on near-term contracts (6% for May 2027) versus the long-term outlook (86% by Nov 2028) suggests De Paula has not yet been called to MLB but has reasonable long-term prospect status
- ›Minor league development timelines typically span 2-5 years; De Paula would need to progress through multiple levels and outcompete organizational competition for a roster spot
- ›Spring training rosters and early-season injury replacements between June 2026 and May 2027 represent the most likely near-term MLB debut catalysts
- ›MLB roster composition and organizational needs at De Paula's position will directly influence whether a debut occurs before late 2028 versus later years
- ›The minimal trading volume on most contracts suggests limited market liquidity and potential uncertainty about De Paula's current professional status or visibility
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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