Will Philadelphia have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$33
7 contracts
Closes
Oct 15, 2026
84 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will New York” vs “Will Colorado have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will New York
Cluster 2
Will Colorado have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Colorado have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Colorado
KXMLBLSTREAK-26-COL
Cluster 3
Will A's have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will A's have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: A's
KXMLBLSTREAK-26-ATH
Cluster 4
Will Chicago WS have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Chicago WS have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Chicago WS
KXMLBLSTREAK-26-CWS
Cluster 5
Will Detroit have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Detroit have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Detroit
KXMLBLSTREAK-26-DET
Cluster 6
Will Miami have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Miami have the longest losing streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Miami
KXMLBLSTREAK-26-MIA
Analysis
This probability indicates roughly a 1-in-4 chance that Philadelphia has the longest single losing streak of any Major League Baseball team during the 2026 regular season. The market is pricing in historical baseline rates for such extreme performance, adjusted for Philadelphia's roster composition and recent competitive standing. Factors supporting a higher probability would include significant injuries to key players, unexpected front-office turnover, or systematic performance collapse. Conversely, roster stability and competitive spending would lower this likelihood. The outcome will be determined over the full 162-game regular season, with clarity emerging by early October 2026 when final standings confirm which team experienced the worst consecutive-game drought.
- ›Philadelphia's 2025 season performance and current roster depth relative to other MLB teams
- ›Historical frequency of longest losing streaks by team and whether Philadelphia has disproportionately experienced such streaks
- ›Early 2026 season results through June-July, indicating whether Philadelphia shows vulnerability to extended slumps
- ›Injury severity to position players or starting pitchers during the regular season
- ›Off-season roster changes and competitive balance shifts across the 30-team league
What moved the line
- Jul 18A's↑28pp2→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22A's↓21pp30→9¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 18Miami↑11pp1→12¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19New York M↑11pp54→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Miami↓8pp18→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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