Will New York M be the 2026 NL East Division Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
101 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Atlanta be the 2026 NL East Division Winner: Atlanta
Will Atlanta be the 2026 NL East Division Winner: Atlanta
KXMLBNLEAST-26-ATL
Cluster 2
Will Philadelphia be the 2026 NL East Division Winner: Philadelphia
Will Philadelphia be the 2026 NL East Division Winner: Philadelphia
KXMLBNLEAST-26-PHI
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects the market's assessment that the New York Mets have roughly a one-in-three chance of winning the 2026 National League East division. The Mets' position at this level likely reflects a roster evaluation against division competitors, particularly the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, along with assessments of their pitching depth and offensive production through the season. Key uncertainties include injury status of core players, trade deadline acquisitions or losses, and the competitive strength of rivals. The division outcome will become increasingly certain as the regular season progresses, with the final weeks of play in September providing definitive clarity on standings and playoff positioning.
- ›Mets' current win-loss record and run differential compared to other NL East teams as of early May 2026
- ›Injury status and performance of the Mets' starting rotation and primary position players versus division competitors
- ›Payroll and roster composition relative to the Braves, Nationals, and other division contenders
- ›Historical strength of division rivals and their performance in early-season play through May 2026
- ›Scheduled trades or roster moves before the July 31 trade deadline that could materially strengthen or weaken the Mets' competitive position
What moved the line
- Aug 1Atlanta↑7pp78→85¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Philadelphia↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Philadelphia↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Philadelphia↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Atlanta↑3pp75→78¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (50% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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