Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Sal Stewart win NL ROTY
Will Sal Stewart win NL ROTY?: Sal Stewart
KXMLBNLROTY-26-SSTE
Cluster 2
Will Konnor Griffin win NL ROTY
Will Konnor Griffin win NL ROTY?: Konnor Griffin
KXMLBNLROTY-26-KGRI
Cluster 3
Will JJ Wetherholt win NL ROTY
Will JJ Wetherholt win NL ROTY?: JJ Wetherholt
KXMLBNLROTY-26-JWET
Cluster 4
Will Nolan McLean win NL ROTY
Will Nolan McLean win NL ROTY?: Nolan McLean
KXMLBNLROTY-26-NMCL
Cluster 5
Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY
Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY?: Moises Ballesteros
KXMLBNLROTY-26-MBAL
Analysis
The 15% probability reflects betting market expectations that Philadelphia Phillies prospect Moises Ballesteros will win the National League Rookie of the Year award. At mid-season 2026, this relatively modest odds level suggests bettors view Ballesteros as a secondary contender rather than a frontrunner. The main drivers of this probability are his actual playing time and performance statistics through the season—batting average, on-base percentage, power numbers, and games played accumulate through June and July, directly determining his eligibility and competitiveness against other rookie candidates. The probability will move significantly in early September as voters begin considering final statistics, with the formal award announcement typically occurring in November. Early performance trends and playing time allocation over the next two months represent the primary catalysts that could shift expectations either upward or downward before year-end resolution.
- ›Ballesteros's plate appearances and games played through August, which determine eligibility and statistical volume compared to other NL rookies
- ›His offensive production metrics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, on-base percentage) relative to other first-year position players in the National League
- ›Philadelphia's decision regarding his playing time and roster role—whether he receives consistent at-bats or limited opportunities
- ›Performance and statistics of competing rookie candidates in the NL during the same period
- ›Any injuries or roster moves affecting either Ballesteros or primary competitors for the award
What moved the line
- May 6Sal Stewart↓9pp38→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Konnor Griffin↑7pp11→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 6JJ Wetherholt↑7pp15→22¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Sal Stewart↓5pp29→24¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.