Will Moises Ballesteros win NL ROTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$39K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
105 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will JJ Wetherholt win NL ROTY
Will JJ Wetherholt win NL ROTY?: JJ Wetherholt
KXMLBNLROTY-26-JWET
Cluster 2
Will Sal Stewart win NL ROTY
Will Sal Stewart win NL ROTY?: Sal Stewart
KXMLBNLROTY-26-SSTE
Cluster 3
Will Carson Benge win NL ROTY
Will Carson Benge win NL ROTY?: Carson Benge
KXMLBNLROTY-26-CBEN
Cluster 4
Will Nolan McLean win NL ROTY
Will Nolan McLean win NL ROTY?: Nolan McLean
KXMLBNLROTY-26-NMCL
Analysis
Moises Ballesteros is currently priced at a 25% probability of winning National League Rookie of the Year, based on aggregated prediction market data. This reflects his position among several competing candidates, with JJ Wetherholt leading at 65% and Sal Stewart at 22%. The probability would shift based on performance metrics through the remainder of the 2026 season—primarily batting average, home runs, RBIs, and games played. Ballesteros's chances depend on whether he maintains offensive production, avoids significant injury, and outperforms other eligible rookies. The final resolution occurs in November 2026 when the NL ROTY award is announced by baseball voters. Trading volume and price movement across the competing contracts suggest meaningful uncertainty, with no single candidate having overwhelming consensus.
- ›Ballesteros's statistics relative to other rookie eligibles (Wetherholt, Stewart, Rumfield, McLean) through end of regular season in early October 2026
- ›Plate appearances and games played—eligibility requires limited prior service time and typically 502+ plate appearances
- ›Performance in September and October, including playoff performance if applicable, influences voter perception
- ›Injury status and availability for remainder of season; extended absences would significantly reduce probability
- ›Voting patterns from previous ROTY awards and whether voters favor batting average, power, overall WAR, or specific position eligibility
What moved the line
- Aug 20JJ Wetherholt↓8pp58→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24JJ Wetherholt↓6pp47→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Sal Stewart↑6pp29→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Sal Stewart↓5pp35→30¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Nolan McLean↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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