Will Chicago WS record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$292
17 contracts
Closes
Sep 30, 2026
80 days
Bracket families
11 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles D record
Will Los Angeles D record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Los Angeles D
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26MOSTHR-LAD
Will Los Angeles D record the lowest team ERA in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Los Angeles D
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26LOWERA-LAD
Will Los Angeles D record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Los Angeles D
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26HIGHBA-LAD
Cluster 2
Will Atlanta record
Will Atlanta record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Atlanta
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26HIGHBA-ATL
Will Atlanta record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Atlanta
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26MOSTHR-ATL
Will Atlanta record the lowest team ERA in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Atlanta
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26LOWERA-ATL
Cluster 3
Will New York Y record
Cluster 4
Will Milwaukee record
Cluster 5
Will Philadelphia record the most strikeouts thrown in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 6
Will Pittsburgh record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 7
Will San Francisco record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 8
Will St. Louis record the highest team batting average in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Cluster 9
Will Seattle record the lowest team ERA in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Seattle record the lowest team ERA in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Seattle
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26LOWERA-SEA
Cluster 10
Will Chicago WS record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Chicago WS record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Chicago WS
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26MOSTHR-CWS
Cluster 11
Will Detroit record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season
Will Detroit record the most home runs in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season?: Detroit
KXMLBTEAMSTAT-26MOSTHR-DET
Analysis
This probability reflects the implied odds that the Chicago White Sox will lead all MLB teams in home runs during the 2026 regular season. At 16%, it suggests the market views Chicago as a moderate-to-long-shot contender for this specific offensive category. The contract's current valuation likely reflects Chicago's roster composition, historical power output, and expected lineups relative to other teams. Key drivers include team personnel decisions made during the offseason and spring training, which determine whether Chicago will prioritize power hitters or balance other offensive elements. The resolution will occur when MLB concludes the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, at which point official statistics will definitively show which team recorded the most home runs. Trading volume remains minimal, indicating limited market interest in this particular outcome relative to other baseball metrics.
- ›Chicago's actual home run total through the 2026 regular season versus competing teams, measured from official MLB statistics
- ›Changes to the White Sox roster composition during the 2025-2026 offseason and spring training that affect power-hitting capability
- ›Injury status of key power hitters on Chicago's roster throughout the regular season
- ›Home run production rates for other teams projected to be competitive in this category, particularly division rivals
- ›Ballpark factors and play styles that either encourage or discourage home run attempts by the White Sox organization
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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