SimpleFunctions
6 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Oct 15, 2026 · 159d

Will Los Angeles D have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

12%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

12%

6 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$294

6 contracts

Closes

Oct 15, 2026

159 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 13% (28 days, 28 points)Aggregate: 13% on 2026-05-08
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 28d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Chicago C have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$248

Cluster 2

Will Milwaukee have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$25

Cluster 3

Will Atlanta have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$21

Cluster 4

Will Seattle have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Los Angeles D have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will San Diego have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This market asks whether the Los Angeles Dodgers will compile the longest winning streak during the 2026 MLB regular season. At 14% probability, traders assess this as a meaningful but unlikely outcome. The Dodgers would need to sustain consecutive wins longer than all other 29 teams manage during the season. Key drivers of this probability include the Dodgers' roster composition and health relative to other contenders, the inherent difficulty of streak length (most seasons see streaks peak in the 8-15 game range), and early-season performance establishing momentum. The metric resolves definitively once MLB's regular season concludes in late September or early October, when the longest streak across all teams becomes verifiable. Any historical context suggests fewer than 1-in-7 chances for a specific team to hold this distinction, making the 14% assessment reflective of baseline frequency adjusted for current team strength expectations.

  • Dodgers' win-loss record through May and June will indicate streak-building capacity relative to AL and NL contenders
  • Historical MLB data shows the season's longest winning streak typically ranges from 8-15 games, constraining what threshold the Dodgers must reach
  • Roster injury status and recent trades before deadline will materially affect whether streaks of 12+ games become feasible
  • Comparative strength of competitors like Houston, Atlanta, and top AL teams determines what streak length actually secures the season-long title
  • Performance in high-leverage games mid-season provides forward signal for whether the team maintains focus for extended run-building periods

What moved the line

  • May 7Chicago C13pp417¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Los Angeles D8pp1119¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Seattle5pp38¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Los Angeles D4pp1620¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Chicago C3pp1720¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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