SimpleFunctions
10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 15, 2026 · 83d

Will Los Angeles D have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

19%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

19%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$275

10 contracts

Closes

Oct 15, 2026

83 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 47% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 47% on 2026-07-23
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

8 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 20% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will New York”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Los Angeles

2 contracts$34

Cluster 2

Will New York

2 contracts$0

Cluster 3

Will Baltimore have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$229

Cluster 4

Will Boston have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$12

Cluster 5

Will Atlanta have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Cleveland have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Detroit have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Minnesota have the longest winning streak in the 2026 Pro Baseball regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability represents the odds that the Los Angeles Dodgers will have the longest winning streak during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. At 18%, this reflects the Dodgers as one of several competitive teams but not the favorite—Chicago's contract prices at 15¢ suggest they're considered slightly more likely to achieve this benchmark. The current level likely reflects the Dodgers' regular-season performance through early July, their roster composition, and remaining schedule depth. The key driver is whether Los Angeles can sustain consecutive wins better than other contenders as teams navigate the stretch run toward September. The single biggest factor remaining is how roster health and trades during the MLB's July 31st deadline affect each team's ability to build and maintain winning streaks in the season's final two months.

  • Los Angeles's actual win-loss record and longest streak achieved through July 3rd, 2026 compared to other top contenders like Chicago, Boston, and Cleveland
  • The quality and consistency of the Dodgers' pitching rotation and bullpen availability during extended winning periods in the season's second half
  • Whether key position players remain healthy and productive through August and September when winning streaks are most likely to occur
  • The strength of the Dodgers' remaining schedule—quality of opponents and travel demands that could impact consecutive game performance
  • How effectively the Dodgers' front office addresses roster gaps via trade deadline acquisitions to enable longer sustained winning streaks

What moved the line

  • Jul 19Boston55pp964¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 20Boston12pp6476¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 21Los Angeles D6pp115¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 18Boston6pp159¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 23Boston6pp8490¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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