Will New England score over 1.5 goals
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 14 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
14 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$75
14 contracts
Closes
Aug 9, 2026
14 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 14 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 14% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Kansas City score over”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles
Will Los Angeles G score over 1.5 goals?: Los Angeles G over 1.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25SJLAG-LAG2
Will Los Angeles F score over 2.5 goals?: Los Angeles F over 2.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25LAFCSKC-LAFC3
Will Los Angeles F score over 1.5 goals?: Los Angeles F over 1.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25LAFCSKC-LAFC2
Will Los Angeles F score over 0.5 goals?: Los Angeles F over 0.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25LAFCSKC-LAFC1
Cluster 2
Will Kansas City score over
Will Kansas City score over 0.5 goals?: Kansas City over 0.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25LAFCSKC-SKC1
Will Kansas City score over 2.5 goals?: Kansas City over 2.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25LAFCSKC-SKC3
Will Kansas City score over 1.5 goals?: Kansas City over 1.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25LAFCSKC-SKC2
Cluster 3
Will Portland score over
Will Portland score over 0.5 goals?: Portland over 0.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-POR1
Will Portland score over 2.5 goals?: Portland over 2.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-POR3
Will Portland score over 1.5 goals?: Portland over 1.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-POR2
Cluster 4
Will Salt Lake score over
Will Salt Lake score over 0.5 goals?: Salt Lake over 0.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-RSL1
Will Salt Lake score over 2.5 goals?: Salt Lake over 2.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-RSL3
Will Salt Lake score over 1.5 goals?: Salt Lake over 1.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25PORRSL-RSL2
Cluster 5
Will San Jose score over 1.5 goals
Will San Jose score over 1.5 goals?: San Jose over 1.5 goals
KXMLSTEAMTOTAL-26JUL25SJLAG-SJ2
Analysis
This market reflects a 46% probability that New England scores more than 1.5 goals in an upcoming match, meaning exactly 2 or more goals. The probability sits near even odds, suggesting the market sees moderate scoring potential but not strong confidence. Key factors influencing this level include New England's recent offensive output, defensive matchups against their opponent, and historical goal-scoring patterns in similar fixtures. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the match itself—the actual game result will definitively answer whether New England reaches the 2+ goal threshold. Related markets show Seattle favored at 70% for over 0.5 goals but only 49% for over 1.5 goals, suggesting general expectation of moderate scoring levels across both teams.
- ›New England's goal-scoring rate in recent matches compared to seasonal average
- ›Head-to-head offensive efficiency between New England and their scheduled opponent
- ›Defensive strength of the opposing team, particularly shots conceded per match
- ›Whether key New England forwards are available and in current form
- ›Match conditions and venue (home/away advantage, weather if applicable)
What moved the line
- Jul 20Los Angeles F over 1.5 goals↑49pp27→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Portland over 0.5 goals↑34pp42→76¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20San Jose over 1.5 goals↑33pp26→59¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Los Angeles F over 0.5 goals↑33pp50→83¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Los Angeles F over 2.5 goals↑26pp29→55¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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