SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 9 outcomes9 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Jul 31, 2026 · 83d

How long will The Odyssey directed by Christopher Nolan be

Leader sits at 95% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

95%

At least 2h 20m

runner-up 95¢leader 95¢

Outcomes

9

winner-take-all

Runner-up

95¢

At least 2h 25m

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

$150

thin orderbook

Closes

Jul 31, 2026

83 days

Venue

Kalshi

9 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAt least 2h 20m: 96% (2 days, 2 points)At least 2h 20m: 96% on 2026-05-08At least 2h 25m: 94% (2 days, 2 points)At least 2h 25m: 94% on 2026-05-08At least 2h 30m: 92% (2 days, 2 points)At least 2h 30m: 92% on 2026-05-08
At least 2h 20m96¢At least 2h 25m94¢At least 2h 30m92¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 2d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

What moved the line

  • May 8At least 2h 25m3pp9194¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8At least 2h 30m3pp8992¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.