How long will The Odyssey directed by Christopher Nolan be
Leader sits at 96% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 3%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least 2h 50m
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
3¢
At least 2h 55m
Spread
93pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 31, 2026
35 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How long will The Odyssey directed by Christopher Nolan be
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 97% probability that Christopher Nolan's film "The Odyssey" will be at least 2 hours 50 minutes long when released. This reflects expectations based on Nolan's filmography, where his recent works have consistently exceeded the 2h 45m threshold—Oppenheimer ran 3h 0m, Interstellar 2h 49m, and Dunkirk 1h 46m (his shortest recent film). The probability gradually declines across longer runtime thresholds: 97% for 2h 50m, 4% for 2h 55m, and 4% for 3h 0m. Resolution will occur upon the film's theatrical release, when official runtime becomes public. Key uncertainty involves Nolan's creative decisions and any post-production editing changes before distribution, which could shorten or extend the final cut.
- ›Christopher Nolan's five most recent feature films have runtimes of 2h 46m or longer (Interstellar, Dunkirk, Tenet, The Dark Knight Rises, Oppenheimer)
- ›Official runtime is typically finalized weeks before theatrical release and becomes impossible to change, making prediction highly reliable once the date approaches
- ›The film's theatrical release date, budget, and plot scope will constrain runtime expectations, with epic narratives historically correlating to longer durations
- ›Kalshi contract liquidity shows 24h volume heavily concentrated in the 2h 55m threshold ($3,342), indicating active disagreement about whether Nolan will produce a film above typical blockbuster length
- ›No contradictory production reports, director statements, or studio announcements have emerged suggesting runtime will deviate significantly from Nolan's established pattern
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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