Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199 USD/MMBtu on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT
Leader sits at 88% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above $2.299
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
above $2.399
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$19
thin orderbook
Closes
May 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the natural gas close price be above
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.799 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.799
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.799
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.699 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.699
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.699
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.599 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.599
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.599
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.499 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.499
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.499
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.399 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.399
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.399
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.299 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.299
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.299
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.199 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.199
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.199
Will the natural gas close price be above 2.099 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $2.099
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T2.099
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.999 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.999
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.999
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.899 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.899
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.899
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.799 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.799
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.799
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.699 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.699
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.699
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.599 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.599
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.599
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.499 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.499
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.499
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.399 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.399
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.399
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.299 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.299
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.299
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.199 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.199
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.199
Will the natural gas close price be above 1.099 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $1.099
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T1.099
Will the natural gas close price be above 0.999 USD/MMBtu on May 15, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?: above $0.999
KXNATGASW-26MAY1517-T0.999
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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