SimpleFunctions
ClosedFinal: above $2.999. Last odds shown below are frozen at close (Jun 12, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
Winner-take-all answer·10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·closed just now·Closes Jun 12, 2026 · 1d

Will the natural gas close price be above 3.199 USD/MMBtu on Apr 24, 2026 at 5pm EDT

Leader sits at 96% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

96%

above $2.999

runner-up 94¢leader 96¢

Outcomes

10

winner-take-all

Runner-up

94¢

above $1.999

Spread

2pp

contested

24h volume

$2K

modest

Closes

Jun 12, 2026

1 days

Venue

Kalshi

10 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayabove $2.999: 88% (7 days, 7 points)above $2.999: 88% on 2026-06-11above $1.999: 88% (7 days, 7 points)above $1.999: 88% on 2026-06-11above $2.099: 90% (7 days, 4 points)above $2.099: 90% on 2026-06-11
above $2.99988¢above $1.99988¢above $2.09990¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 7d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will the natural gas close price be above

10 contracts$2K

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.