NBA Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 11 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
11 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
11 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
617 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
11 clusters across 11 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Makai Lemon win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Makai Lemon
KXNFLOROTY-27-MLEM
Cluster 2
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carson Beck win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carson Beck
KXNFLOROTY-27-CBEC
Cluster 3
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs
KXNFLDROTY-27-CDOW
Cluster 4
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLOROTY-27-FMEN
Cluster 5
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jordyn Tyson win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jordyn Tyson
KXNFLOROTY-27-JTYS
Cluster 6
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLOROTY-27-JPRI
Cluster 7
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Cluster 8
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese
KXNFLDROTY-27-AREE
Cluster 9
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate
KXNFLOROTY-27-CTAT
Cluster 10
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will CJ Allen win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: CJ Allen
KXNFLDROTY-27-CALL
Cluster 11
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion
KXNFLOROTY-27-KCON
Analysis
This 13% probability reflects the aggregated betting market's assessment of the likelihood that one of the listed rookies wins the 2025-26 NBA Offensive Rookie of the Year award. The relatively low probability compared to other markets (Polymarket averages 19%) suggests meaningful uncertainty about which player will ultimately lead the statistical categories or win the voting. The outcome depends on rookie performance metrics—points, assists, and shooting efficiency—across the full season through April 2026, combined with narrative momentum and voter preferences. The 9-percentage-point gap between venues indicates disagreement about whether current frontrunners like Fernando Mendoza (22¢) or Jadarian Price (11¢) will sustain their early performance or whether other candidates will emerge. Resolution occurs in late April 2026 when the NBA announces the official award winner.
- ›Fernando Mendoza trades at 22¢ on Kalshi but the aggregate market is only 13%, indicating potential overvaluation or limited contract liquidity on that venue
- ›Volume concentration ($1,793 in 24h volume on Jadarian Price) versus minimal activity on lower-priced candidates suggests limited price discovery for mid-tier rookies
- ›Offensive Rookie of the Year historically correlates with total points and usage rate; candidates must maintain scoring efficiency over an 82-game season rather than showing early promise
- ›The 9pp cross-venue discrepancy (Polymarket 19% vs Kalshi 10%) reflects different market participant bases and risk appetites rather than resolved information
- ›Early-season performance can shift dramatically—rookie wall effects, injury probability, and team trading decisions by the deadline (February 2026) create fundamental uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 20Arvell Reese↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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