NBA Rookie of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 8% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
8%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
7 contracts
Closes
Feb 28, 2028
521 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Fernando Mendoza win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Fernando Mendoza
KXNFLOROTY-27-FMEN
Cluster 2
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Caleb Downs win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Caleb Downs
KXNFLDROTY-27-CDOW
Cluster 3
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Rueben Bain Jr. win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Rueben Bain Jr.
KXNFLDROTY-27-RBAI
Cluster 4
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Jadarian Price win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Jadarian Price
KXNFLOROTY-27-JPRI
Cluster 5
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will KC Concepcion win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: KC Concepcion
KXNFLOROTY-27-KCON
Cluster 6
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year
Will Carnell Tate win the Offensive Rookie of the Year?: Carnell Tate
KXNFLOROTY-27-CTAT
Cluster 7
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year
Will Arvell Reese win the Defensive Rookie of the Year?: Arvell Reese
KXNFLDROTY-27-AREE
Analysis
This 10% probability represents the aggregated market estimate that one of these five specific players will win NBA Rookie of the Year in the 2025-26 season. The market is currently pricing these candidates at relatively low odds, with Jadarian Price leading at 15% for Offensive Rookie and Caleb Downs at 11% for Defensive Rookie. The probability level reflects uncertainty about which rookies will sustain strong performance throughout a full season and emerge above other candidates. The main factors driving this estimate are early-season performance metrics, playing time allocation, and team success—all of which will accumulate over the remaining months of the season. The resolution will occur in June 2026 when the NBA announces the official award winners, making the remainder of the regular season and any performance patterns the primary catalysts that could shift these probabilities.
- ›Jadarian Price currently holds the highest individual contract probability at 15%, suggesting market confidence in his early-season offensive production relative to other forwards
- ›The top five contracts collectively sum to approximately 56%, meaning the market assigns 44% probability to other rookies not listed or to none of these five winning
- ›Trading volume on Price's contract ($3,028 in 24h) is notably higher than other candidates, indicating this is the most actively debated rookie outcome
- ›Caleb Downs' 11% probability for Defensive Rookie shows separate market assessment of defensive vs. offensive contributions as distinct award categories
- ›The gap between the highest-priced contract (15¢) and lowest (7¢) spans more than two-fold, reflecting material disagreement on which players maintain sufficient production through season's end
What moved the line
- Sep 24Fernando Mendoza↓5pp13→8¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 24Rueben Bain Jr.↓5pp10→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Jadarian Price↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 19Jadarian Price↑3pp13→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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