Will Bam Adebayo win Defensive Player of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$147
8 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2028
645 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ausar Thompson win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Ausar Thompson win Defensive Player of the Year?: Ausar Thompson
KXNBADPOY-27-ATHOMPSON9
Cluster 2
Will Victor Wembanyama win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Victor Wembanyama win Defensive Player of the Year?: Victor Wembanyama
KXNBADPOY-27-VWEMBANYAMA1
Cluster 3
Will Chet Holmgren win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Chet Holmgren win Defensive Player of the Year?: Chet Holmgren
KXNBADPOY-27-CHOLMGREN7
Cluster 4
Will Bam Adebayo win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Bam Adebayo win Defensive Player of the Year?: Bam Adebayo
KXNBADPOY-27-BADEBAYO13
Cluster 5
Will Rudy Gobert win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Rudy Gobert win Defensive Player of the Year?: Rudy Gobert
KXNBADPOY-27-RGOBERT27
Cluster 6
Will Amen Thompson win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Amen Thompson win Defensive Player of the Year?: Amen Thompson
KXNBADPOY-27-ATHOMPSON1
Cluster 7
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Jaren Jackson Jr. win Defensive Player of the Year?: Jaren Jackson Jr.
KXNBADPOY-27-JJACKSON20
Cluster 8
Will Cooper Flagg win Defensive Player of the Year
Will Cooper Flagg win Defensive Player of the Year?: Cooper Flagg
KXNBADPOY-27-CFLAGG32
Analysis
This 22% probability indicates roughly 1-in-5 odds that Bam Adebayo wins the 2026-27 NBA Defensive Player of the Year award. The estimate reflects that while Adebayo is considered a strong defensive presence for the Miami Heat, he faces significant competition from other elite defenders. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Adebayo's consistent defensive performance and availability relative to peers, and the strength of the defensive field—notably Victor Wembanyama and OG Anunoby, both priced at 32¢, suggest voters may have alternative top-tier options. Team success matters substantially for DPOY voting, so Heat playoff performance and whether Miami contends for titles would materially shift expectations. The award will be decided in June 2027 following the regular season, when voting patterns become clear based on actual defensive metrics and team performance throughout the season.
- ›Adebayo's individual defensive metrics (blocks, steals, defensive rebounds, rim protection) relative to Wembanyama, Anunoby, and other contenders
- ›Miami Heat's regular-season record and playoff seeding, as DPOY voters typically favor players on winning teams
- ›Injury status and games played for Adebayo and competing defenders, since durability affects award consideration
- ›Changes in NBA defensive evaluation criteria or voting patterns that might favor guards/wings over centers
- ›Wembanyama's continued development curve, given he is tied with Adebayo at 32¢ despite being younger and a rising star
What moved the line
- Sep 23Ausar Thompson↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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