Will Boston be scheduled to play against Detroit in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 26% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
26%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$244
15 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
99 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will New York be scheduled to play against
Will New York be scheduled to play against Boston in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Boston
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-BOS
Will New York be scheduled to play against San Antonio in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: San Antonio
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-SAS
Will New York be scheduled to play against Philadelphia in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Philadelphia
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-PHI
Will New York be scheduled to play against Miami in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Miami
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-MIA
Will New York be scheduled to play against Los Angeles L in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Los Angeles L
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-LAL
Will New York be scheduled to play against Indiana in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Indiana
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-IND
Will New York be scheduled to play against Cleveland in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Cleveland
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-CLE
Will New York be scheduled to play against Atlanta in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Atlanta
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26NYK-ATL
Cluster 2
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against Denver in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Denver
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26OKC-DEN
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against San Antonio in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: San Antonio
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26OKC-SAS
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against Minnesota in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Minnesota
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26OKC-MIN
Will Oklahoma City be scheduled to play against Los Angeles L in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Los Angeles L
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26OKC-LAL
Cluster 3
Will Boston be scheduled to play against
Will Boston be scheduled to play against Detroit in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Detroit
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26BOS-DET
Will Boston be scheduled to play against New York in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: New York
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26BOS-NYK
Will Boston be scheduled to play against Miami in their first game of the 2026-27 Pro Basketball regular season?: Miami
KXNBAFIRSTOPPONENT-26BOS-MIA
Analysis
This contract reflects the probability that Boston's first scheduled game of the 2026-27 NBA season will be against Detroit. At 15%, the market views this as a low-probability matchup. The NBA typically schedules opening-night games to feature marquee matchups or historically significant rivalries, and Boston-Detroit does not rank among the league's highest-profile first-game pairings. The contract will resolve once the official 2026-27 NBA schedule is released, likely in August 2026. Factors include whether the league prioritizes geographic proximity, competitive balance, or national television appeal when assigning opening assignments, and whether Boston and Detroit are designated as opening-night participants at all.
- ›Boston-Detroit is not historically considered a marquee opening-night rivalry compared to contests like New York-Philadelphia, which trades at 40-45 cents on similar contracts
- ›Opening-night assignments typically feature high-profile matchups or specific scheduling objectives; market assessment suggests this pairing does not meet those criteria
- ›The official NBA schedule release in August 2026 will definitively resolve this contract; current pricing reflects pre-announcement uncertainty
- ›Geographic distance and mid-season scheduling patterns suggest Boston may be paired with Atlantic Division or Eastern Conference rivals for opening night
- ›The contract's low probability aligns with broader market data showing most single-game prediction contracts for non-marquee matchups price below 20 cents
What moved the line
- Aug 5San Antonio↑38pp20→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Detroit↑29pp15→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7Miami↓9pp13→4¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 6Boston↓8pp20→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 7New York↓8pp12→4¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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