Will Los Angeles L be the Pacific Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4
4 contracts
Closes
Jul 14, 2027
329 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 9% of their title tokens — “Will Los Angeles” vs “Will Golden State be the Pacific Division winner in the 2026-27 season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles
Cluster 2
Will Golden State be the Pacific Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Golden State be the Pacific Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Golden State
KXNBAPACIFIC-26-GSW
Cluster 3
Will Phoenix be the Pacific Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Phoenix be the Pacific Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Phoenix
KXNBAPACIFIC-26-PHX
Analysis
This 3% probability means the market estimates a 1-in-33 chance that the Los Angeles Lakers win the Pacific Division in 2026-27. The Lakers face entrenched competition from Golden State, Phoenix, and Sacramento in a historically competitive division. Their probability reflects uncertainty around roster composition following the 2025-26 season, aging core performance, and whether management makes significant roster adjustments. The main driver of probability changes will be the 2026 NBA free agency period (June-July 2026) and any trades the Lakers execute before the 2026-27 season begins. Division winner determination occurs through the 82-game regular season (October 2026-April 2027), with final standings set in early April 2027.
- ›Lakers' 2025-26 regular season performance, win-loss record, and playoff results, which directly inform expectations for the following season
- ›Roster changes during 2026 offseason free agency and the trade deadline, including potential departures or acquisitions that shift competitive balance
- ›Health and age-related performance trajectories of core roster players, particularly those over 30 who have historically driven the team's competitiveness
- ›Comparative strength of Pacific Division rivals, especially Golden State's durability, Phoenix's roster stability, and Sacramento's continued development
- ›Vegas win-total projections and preseason odds released in fall 2026, which typically correlate with division winner probabilities
What moved the line
- Aug 14Phoenix↑6pp14→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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