Pro Basketball Playoff Qualifiers

30-day trend

Analysis

This market aggregates predictions on which NBA team will qualify for the 2027 playoffs, with the current leader priced at 76% probability. The market reflects expectations about regular-season performance through April 2027, when playoff qualification is determined. Teams with higher probabilities are those perceived as having stronger rosters, favorable schedules, or track records of sustained winning. The outcome depends on measurable factors: win-loss records accumulated over the full season, playoff seeding positions finalized at season's end, and any mid-season roster transactions. The single largest catalyst is the regular season's completion in April 2027, which definitively determines which teams meet qualification thresholds. Until then, contract prices will fluctuate based on injury updates, trade activity, and actual game results that alter playoff positioning.

• ›Regular-season win-loss record from June 2026 through April 2027 directly determines playoff eligibility; teams must finish in top positions or meet league-specific criteria
• ›Injury status of key roster players significantly affects competitive strength; major injuries to All-Star players typically lower a team's probability
• ›Trade market activity during the season can improve or weaken rosters; acquisitions at deadlines may shift expectations for specific franchises
• ›Strength of schedule variation means some teams face easier/harder remaining opponents, affecting their probability of reaching qualifying thresholds
• ›Current market pricing reflects existing roster composition and perceived trajectory; changes in trading or free-agent availability will prompt repricing

What moved the line

• Jul 16Boston↓12pp80→68¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 15Miami↓11pp75→64¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 16Phoenix↑11pp33→44¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 18Boston↑11pp62→73¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 15Philadelphia↑9pp62→71¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will the number of distinct days with a Getty Images editorial photo of Trump be exactly 7 between Jun 15, 2026 and Jun 21, 2026last 95% · 1d
• Will the 5Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.04% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 4d
• Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 17, 2026last 96% · 4d
• Will Janet Mills endorse Graham Platner in the Maine Senate race before May 15, 2026last 3% · 7d
• Will the 7Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.24% on Jul 13, 2026last 84% · 7d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds