Will Atlanta be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
5 contracts
Closes
Jul 14, 2027
359 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Miami be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Miami be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Miami
KXNBASOUTHEAST-26-MIA
Cluster 2
Will Washington be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Washington be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Washington
KXNBASOUTHEAST-26-WAS
Cluster 3
Will Atlanta be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Atlanta be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Atlanta
KXNBASOUTHEAST-26-ATL
Cluster 4
Will Charlotte be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Charlotte be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Charlotte
KXNBASOUTHEAST-26-CHA
Cluster 5
Will Orlando be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season
Will Orlando be the Southeast Division winner in the 2026-27 season?: Orlando
KXNBASOUTHEAST-26-ORL
Analysis
This 3% probability indicates that markets view Atlanta as one of the least likely teams to win the Southeast Division in the 2026-27 NBA season, with the market pricing equal low odds across all four division competitors. Atlanta's probability would rise primarily based on significant roster improvements through trades or free agency, stronger-than-expected performance from young players during the 2026 offseason, or unexpected injuries to competing teams. The preseason beginning in October 2026 and early regular-season performance through November will provide the first major test of whether Atlanta's current trajectory justifies higher odds, with the division winner determined by the final regular season standings in April 2027. Currently, flat pricing across all four teams suggests genuine uncertainty or limited trading volume rather than strong conviction about any single team's chances.
- ›Atlanta's roster composition and salary cap flexibility heading into the 2026 offseason compared to Charlotte, Miami, and Orlando
- ›Performance metrics during the 2026 preseason and first 20 games of the regular season (October-November 2026)
- ›Injury status and availability of key players for all four Southeast Division teams through the regular season
- ›Free agency acquisitions and trades completed by Atlanta versus division rivals between now and training camp in September 2026
- ›Trading volume and contract depth on prediction markets for Southeast Division winner, indicating strength of conviction behind current 3% pricing
What moved the line
- Jul 13Atlanta↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Charlotte↓12pp20→8¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Atlanta↑11pp8→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 15Miami↑4pp34→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13Orlando↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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