Will Enzo Fernandez score a goal in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$701
19 contracts
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
19 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jeremy Doku score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Jeremy Doku score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Jeremy Doku
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26BEL-JDOKU11
Cluster 2
Will Umarbek Eshmuradov score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will Julian Alvarez score a goal in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup
Will Julian Alvarez score a goal in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup?: Julian Alvarez
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ARG-JALVAREZ
Cluster 4
Will Alexis Mac Allister score a goal in the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup
Cluster 5
Will Michael Olise score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Michael Olise score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Michael Olise
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26FRA-MOLISE
Cluster 6
Will Aurelien Tchouameni score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 7
Will Brahim Diaz score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Brahim Diaz score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Brahim Diaz
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26MAR-BDIAZ21
Cluster 8
Will Pedri score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Pedri score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Pedri
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ESP-PEDRI
Cluster 9
Will Nico Williams score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Nico Williams score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Nico Williams
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ESP-NWILLIAMS
Cluster 10
Will Nahuel Molina score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Nahuel Molina score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Nahuel Molina
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ARG-NMOLINA
Cluster 11
Will Sofyan Amrabat score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Sofyan Amrabat score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Sofyan Amrabat
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26MAR-SAMRAB34
Cluster 12
Will Jules Kounde score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Jules Kounde score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Jules Kounde
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26FRA-JKOUNDE
Cluster 13
Will Rodri score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Rodri score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Rodri
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ESP-RODRI
Cluster 14
Will Ferran Torres score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Ferran Torres score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Ferran Torres
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ESP-FTORRES
Cluster 15
Will Dani Olmo score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Dani Olmo score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Dani Olmo
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ESP-DOLMO
Cluster 16
Will Exequiel Palacios score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 17
Will Flaco Lopez score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Flaco Lopez score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Flaco Lopez
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ARG-FLOPEZ
Cluster 18
Will Facundo Medina score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Facundo Medina score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Facundo Medina
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ARG-FMENDINA
Cluster 19
Will Gonzalo Montiel score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Will Gonzalo Montiel score a goal in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup?: Gonzalo Montiel
KXWCPLAYERGOALS-26ARG-GMONTIEL
Analysis
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Enzo Fernandez will score at least one goal during the 2026 FIFA Men's World Cup. At 12%, this reflects his role as a midfielder for Argentina rather than a primary striker, limiting his scoring opportunities compared to forwards. His goal-scoring likelihood depends on Argentina's tournament performance and tactical deployment, as well as his individual form heading into the competition. The primary catalyst resolving this market will be the tournament itself, which takes place in June-July 2026. Market participants are weighing his historical goal-scoring rates in club and international competition against the relative rarity of midfielders accumulating multiple goals in World Cups.
- ›Fernandez's position as a midfielder typically yields fewer goals than forwards; historical World Cup data on midfielder scoring rates would be instructive
- ›Argentina's depth at attacking positions and tactical formation choices will determine playing time and opportunities available to him
- ›His scoring record for Argentina and his club team in the 18 months leading to the tournament will be an observable baseline for form assessment
- ›Comparison to similarly-positioned Argentine midfielders (Lo Celso at 19¢, Mac Allister at 15¢) suggests market differentiation based on individual track records rather than position alone
- ›Tournament bracket, group composition, and Argentina's expected match volume will influence aggregate opportunity accumulation
What moved the line
- Jul 6Pedri↑12pp8→20¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 3Michael Olise↑11pp39→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Brahim Diaz↓11pp15→4¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1Michael Olise↑10pp27→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 5Michael Olise↓9pp45→36¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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