Will Miami (FL) win the College Football ACC Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$228
8 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
239 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Virginia” vs “Will California win the College Football ACC Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Virginia
Cluster 2
Will California win the College Football ACC Championship
Will California win the College Football ACC Championship?: California
KXNCAAFACC-26-CAL
Cluster 3
Will Clemson win the College Football ACC Championship
Will Clemson win the College Football ACC Championship?: Clemson
KXNCAAFACC-26-CLEM
Cluster 4
Will Miami (FL) win the College Football ACC Championship
Will Miami (FL) win the College Football ACC Championship?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFACC-26-MIA
Cluster 5
Will Louisville win the College Football ACC Championship
Will Louisville win the College Football ACC Championship?: Louisville
KXNCAAFACC-26-LOU
Cluster 6
Will SMU win the College Football ACC Championship
Will SMU win the College Football ACC Championship?: SMU
KXNCAAFACC-26-SMU
Cluster 7
Will Pittsburgh win the College Football ACC Championship
Will Pittsburgh win the College Football ACC Championship?: Pittsburgh
KXNCAAFACC-26-PITT
Analysis
This 13% probability reflects market expectations that Miami will win the ACC Championship in the 2026 college football season. The relatively modest odds reflect Miami's competitive standing within a strong ACC conference alongside established programs. Key drivers of this probability include the team's roster composition heading into the season, coaching stability and performance track record, and how Miami performs in key conference games against rivals. The actual probability will shift significantly once the season begins and results accumulate through conference play, particularly after Miami's matchups against traditional ACC powerhouses. The ultimate resolution occurs when the ACC Championship game is played, typically in early December, which will determine whether Miami reaches that title game and ultimately wins it.
- ›Miami's preseason roster strength and depth, especially at quarterback and defensive positions, relative to other ACC contenders
- ›Historical performance trends: Miami's win-loss record and bowl appearances over the past 2-3 seasons indicate the baseline competitiveness of the program
- ›Head coaching tenure and stability under current staff, which affects recruiting and in-season performance consistency
- ›Schedule difficulty in ACC conference play, including number and quality of ranked opponents Miami must face during the regular season
- ›Injury outcomes to key players during the season, which typically have material impact on championship probability during October-November
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.