Will Ohio St. be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$180
20 contracts
Closes
Jan 14, 2027
119 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week
Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 3 rankings (expected to be released on Sep 13, 2026)?: Texas
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W3R1-TEX
Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Texas
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-TEX
Will Texas be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Texas
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W10R1-TEX
Cluster 2
Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week
Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 8 rankings (expected to be released on Oct 18, 2026)?: Georgia
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W8R1-UGA
Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Georgia
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-UGA
Will Georgia be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Georgia
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W10R1-UGA
Cluster 3
Will Notre Dame be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1
Will Notre Dame be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W10R1-ND
Will Notre Dame be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W12R1-ND
Will Notre Dame be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-ND
Cluster 4
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W10R1-OSU
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W12R1-OSU
Will Ohio St. be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-OSU
Cluster 5
Will Indiana be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1
Will Indiana be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Indiana
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W10R1-IND
Will Indiana be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Indiana
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-IND
Cluster 6
Will Oregon be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1
Will Oregon be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 10 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 1, 2026)?: Oregon
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W10R1-ORE
Will Oregon be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Oregon
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-ORE
Cluster 7
Will LSU be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1
Will LSU be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: LSU
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-LSU
Will LSU be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: LSU
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W12R1-LSU
Cluster 8
Will Miami (FL) be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 1
Will Miami (FL) be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 11 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 8, 2026)?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W11R1-MIA
Will Miami (FL) be the #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll Week 12 rankings (expected to be released on Nov 15, 2026)?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W12R1-MIA
Analysis
This market estimates an 11% probability that Ohio State will be ranked #1 in the AP College Football Poll for Week 1 of the 2026 season. The relatively low odds reflect that preseason #1 rankings typically go to teams with established championship credentials or dominant recent track records. Ohio State would need to enter the season with either an exceptionally strong returning roster or significant offseason improvements to secure the top ranking ahead of other perennial powerhouses. The Week 1 AP Poll will be released in early September 2026, incorporating spring game results, recruiting classes, and offseason roster changes. Key factors include Ohio State's returning talent level, their offseason transfers and recruiting performance, comparisons to other traditional contenders, and preseason expert consensus.
- ›Ohio State's roster composition heading into 2026, particularly at key positions and depth on both sides of the ball
- ›Transfer portal activity and recruiting class rankings relative to other top-tier programs competing for #1 ranking
- ›Performance indicators from spring practice and bowl eligibility status from the 2025 season
- ›Preseason rankings from major publications and expert polling trends in the weeks leading up to Week 1
- ›Comparative strength of other traditional powerhouses entering the 2026 season (Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, etc.)
What moved the line
- Sep 12Ohio St.↓20pp30→10¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Ohio St.↓18pp30→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Ohio St.↑18pp12→30¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Ohio St.↓16pp30→14¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Ohio St.↓12pp33→21¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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