Will Ohio St. be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$558
6 contracts
Closes
Sep 15, 2026
129 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ohio St. be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Will Ohio St. be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W1R1-OSU
Cluster 2
Will Miami (FL) be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Will Miami (FL) be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings?: Miami (FL)
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W1R1-MIA
Cluster 3
Will Indiana be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Will Indiana be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings?: Indiana
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W1R1-IND
Cluster 4
Will Texas be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Will Texas be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings?: Texas
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W1R1-TEX
Cluster 5
Will Oregon be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Will Oregon be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings?: Oregon
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W1R1-ORE
Cluster 6
Will Notre Dame be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings
Will Notre Dame be #1 ranked team on College Football AP Poll week 1 rankings?: Notre Dame
KXNCAAFAPRANK-26W1R1-ND
Analysis
This probability reflects a 21% chance that Ohio State will enter the 2026 college football season as the nation's top-ranked team in the AP Poll's first weekly release. The current assessment is influenced by Ohio State's recent performance trajectory and preseason expectations versus competing programs that may have stronger off-season positioning. The single most important resolution point will be the actual AP Poll release in late August 2026, which reflects voter assessments of team roster strength, returning talent, coaching staff changes, and summer transfer portal activity. Key factors analysts monitor include Ohio State's quarterback situation heading into the season, the quality and health of the team's offensive and defensive line depth, offseason transfers or departures, how other traditional powerhouses position themselves, and whether Ohio State experiences any concerning injuries during preseason practice.
- ›Ohio State's quarterback situation and whether they have a proven starter entering the 2026 season
- ›The team's defensive line depth and overall defensive personnel after the offseason
- ›Transfer portal activity affecting roster composition and talent level relative to other top programs
- ›Offseason coaching staff changes or developments that might affect preseason evaluations
- ›Competitive positioning of other traditional powerhouses like Alabama, Georgia, and Texas entering 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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