Caleb Hawkins wins the award

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents a 10% chance that Caleb Hawkins wins a specific award, based on current prediction market pricing. Hawkins is trading at 3 cents on Kalshi, well below the leading contender Jeremiah Smith at 33 cents, suggesting market participants view Smith as a substantially stronger candidate. The probability reflects assessments of recent performance metrics, eligibility criteria, and voting patterns for this award. Factors supporting a higher probability would include standout recent statistics or accomplishments by Hawkins; factors lowering it would be comparable achievements by competing candidates. Market liquidity is minimal across most contracts (zero 24-hour volume on Hawkins), indicating limited trading activity and potentially wider uncertainty among participants. Resolution will occur when the award is officially announced, which should clarify whether Hawkins's actual qualifications and performance met the threshold for winning.

• ›Jeremiah Smith commands 33 cents compared to Hawkins at 3 cents, indicating market consensus favors Smith by roughly 11-to-1 odds
• ›Hawkins's contract shows zero 24-hour trading volume, suggesting low confidence or interest in his candidacy among active traders
• ›The minimal pricing of Hawkins relative to other candidates reflects either poor recent performance relative to peers or lower perceived award eligibility
• ›No major liquidity or price movement on Hawkins's contract suggests no recent catalysts or information supporting his chances
• ›Award resolution timeline and specific eligibility/voting criteria would directly determine outcome once announced

What moved the line

• Sep 18Jeremiah Smith↑14pp34→48¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Jadan Baugh↑10pp11→21¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Jadan Baugh↓9pp20→11¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 17Iapani Laloulu↓9pp23→14¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Justin Evans↓9pp16→7¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds