Will Penn State win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$36
9 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
239 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
8 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Will Michigan” vs “Will Oregon win the College Football Big 10 Championship”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Michigan
Cluster 2
Will Oregon win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will Oregon win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: Oregon
KXNCAAFB10-26-ORE
Cluster 3
Will Indiana win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will Indiana win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: Indiana
KXNCAAFB10-26-IND
Cluster 4
Will USC win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will USC win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: USC
KXNCAAFB10-26-USC
Cluster 5
Will Ohio State win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will Ohio State win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFB10-26-OSU
Cluster 6
Will Penn State win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will Penn State win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: Penn St.
KXNCAAFB10-26-PSU
Cluster 7
Will Minnesota win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will Minnesota win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: Minnesota
KXNCAAFB10-26-MINN
Cluster 8
Will Purdue win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Will Purdue win the College Football Big 10 Championship?: Purdue
KXNCAAFB10-26-PUR
Analysis
Penn State currently carries an 11% probability of winning the Big 10 Conference football championship. This reflects the market's assessment of the Nittany Lions' ability to win their conference title during the 2026 season. The probability is influenced by Penn State's roster composition, coaching staff performance, strength of schedule within the conference, and how they compare to other Big 10 contenders. Key factors pushing the probability down include competition from programs like Ohio State, Michigan, and other traditional Big 10 powers. The championship will be resolved through the regular season culminating in the Big 10 Championship Game, typically held in early December, where Penn State would need to either win their division or finish as the highest-ranked non-division winner to qualify. Upcoming non-conference games and early conference matchups will provide critical data about the team's competitiveness relative to expectations.
- ›Penn State's win-loss record in Big 10 play and strength of schedule within the conference
- ›Head-to-head performance against division rivals and top-tier Big 10 programs
- ›Quarterback performance, key injury status, and offensive/defensive line development through training camp and preseason
- ›Comparative roster strength and recruiting rankings relative to Ohio State, Michigan, and other conference competitors
- ›Performance in September and October non-conference and early conference games as predictive indicators
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.