Will Penn State win the College Football Big 10 Championship
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
6 contracts
Closes
Jan 3, 2027
134 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Oregon win the College Football Big Ten Championship
Will Oregon win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Oregon
KXNCAAFB10-26-ORE
Cluster 2
Will Michigan win the College Football Big Ten Championship
Will Michigan win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Michigan
KXNCAAFB10-26-MICH
Cluster 3
Will Indiana win the College Football Big Ten Championship
Will Indiana win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Indiana
KXNCAAFB10-26-IND
Cluster 4
Will Penn State win the College Football Big Ten Championship
Will Penn State win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Penn St.
KXNCAAFB10-26-PSU
Cluster 5
Will Ohio State win the College Football Big Ten Championship
Will Ohio State win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: Ohio St.
KXNCAAFB10-26-OSU
Cluster 6
Will USC win the College Football Big Ten Championship
Will USC win the College Football Big Ten Championship?: USC
KXNCAAFB10-26-USC
Analysis
Penn State is currently priced at 14% to win the Big Ten Conference championship, reflecting moderate-to-low odds among conference competitors. This probability is driven primarily by the strength of conference rivals—Ohio State (30%), Oregon (25%), and Indiana (23%) command higher prices—and Penn State's performance through the 2026 season to date. The team's path to the championship depends on regular season results, head-to-head matchups against top contenders, and bowl eligibility status. Upcoming games against ranked opponents and final conference standings will be the primary driver of whether this probability adjusts significantly higher or lower as the season progresses toward the championship game.
- ›Penn State's record and strength of schedule through mid-season compared to Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana
- ›Historical Big Ten tournament performance and conference tournament seeding implications for Penn State's divisional standing
- ›Head-to-head results between Penn State and the three higher-probability favorites during regular season play
- ›Penn State's injury status for key offensive and defensive positions relative to remaining conference schedule
- ›Conference tiebreaker scenarios and strength-of-record calculations that determine championship game qualification
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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